Morgan Stanley's latest assessment: In 2026, South Korea's semiconductor industry will not focus on expanding production capacity, but rather on improving "utilization rates". Consumables and equipment will take the lead.

Morgan Stanley's research report pointed out that by 2026, the value chain of the semiconductor industry in South Korea will enter a growth cycle driven by capacity utilization rate. As the capacity of advanced process wafer fabs approaches saturation, the industry's profit lever will shift towards consumables, materials, and services-intensive equipment closely related to the intensity of wafer processing, and become the core investment theme for the entire year. The analyst team led by Ryan Kim stated that by 2026, the key variables influencing the semiconductor value chain have shifted from traditional capital expenditure cycles to the actual capacity utilization rate of advanced logic processes. Despite the significance of new wafer fab investments such as Samsung Electronics' P4 fab and SK Hynix's M15X fab as important catalysts in the storage sector, the startup rate of wafers for advanced process nodes below 5 nanometers is gradually returning to normal levels due to AI-driven logic chip demand and internal core business support after a prolonged period of underutilization in wafer foundries. The incremental contribution of external logic chip demand is particularly noteworthy. The report cited TrendForce data showing that discussions on the transfer of more advanced logic chip production capacity to non-mainstream wafer foundries have increased following the non-exclusive licensing and alignment of intellectual property agreements between NVIDIA Corporation and Groq. Even with unclear specifics on production capacity scale and timing, the complexity of advanced logic wafers due to deep integration in the EUV era and multiple graphic technologies will significantly increase the number of process steps, even with slight increments. Furthermore, these advancements, along with Tesla, Inc.'s collaboration with Samsung, will further strengthen the sustained demand foundation for process equipment and materials. Samsung's internal logic chip production provides key support for the utilization rate of advanced process nodes. TrendForce revealed that progress has been made in the development of the Exynos 2600 chip based on Samsung's self-developed 2-nanometer GAA process, which will serve as a "cornerstone" for the capacity utilization rate of advanced process wafer fabs. The analysis suggests that whether for internal or external customers, wafer production requires a complete set of processes such as etching, deposition, cleaning, planarization, measurement, and yield management. Internal logic chip capacity helps reduce the volatility of utilization rate forecasts and enhances visibility of sustained demand. In conclusion, Morgan Stanley states that the core narrative of the industry in 2026 will revolve around two main themes: the commissioning of new wafer fabs and the normalization of advanced process capacity utilization rate, which will release sustained demand for process-intensive equipment, consumables, and services. The expansion of emerging logic chip applications and the ramping up of internal capacity will drive a significant increase in wafer throughput, thereby boosting profitability for various suppliers. In terms of benefiting segments in the value chain, the report specifically recommends three areas: protection films and related process consumables, as the demand for protection film materials used to protect lithography masks and enhance graphic fidelity will grow in sync with capacity utilization as EUV lithography layers increase; blank masks and intermediate products for inspection, as key inputs for lithography patterning, the material consumption of local mask and blank mask suppliers will directly increase with capacity utilization, especially against the backdrop of continuous EUV permeation; laser-based and precision process equipment, these equipment that support processes like wafer annealing, marking, or micromachining, will increase their usage rates and service cycles directly with throughput increases.