Guosen: AI, gaming, and e-commerce going global, as well as the easing of margins in the food delivery sector, are key variables. Pay close attention to the overseas businesses of internet giants.

Guosen released a research report stating that looking ahead to 2026, close attention should be paid to the progress of internet giants in their overseas operations. With the trend of AI development, domestic cloud providers and gaming companies are facing good opportunities for overseas growth. In addition, the upgrading of domestic quality supply chain and the internationalization of e-commerce platforms are important growth directions to supplement weak domestic demand. Guosen's main points are as follows: Reviewing history, it is difficult for Hong Kong stocks to separate from US dollar liquidity and macroeconomic factors. In previous years, the performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng Index in Q4 was relatively weak, and the following year's Q1/Q2 would experience recovery. Therefore, the current pressure on the Hong Kong stock market is mainly related to liquidity and pessimistic macroeconomic expectations. In addition, the food delivery war initiated by Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com in 2025 may enter a stage of contraction in investment in 2026, which will be an important variable affecting the cash flow and profits of the three platforms. Alibaba: A self-developed AI full-stack vendor, with a focus in 2026. 1) The Q&A model continues to increase its share in the global model market, and the accumulation in the open source community drives the overseas growth of Alibaba Cloud; 2) After landing the cooperation with Apple in AI edge, subsequent cloud business increment; 3) The downstream Agent and application volume bring accelerated growth in model layer realization; 4) The rhythm of self-developed chips going online and driving profit margins. Tencent: The advertising business continues to grow rapidly under the background of AI empowerment, and gaming overseas is an important increment. This year, the bank observed that Tencent's overseas games accelerated significantly, with continuous output of high-quality industrial-level production support domestically, deepening cooperation with overseas studios, and improving the channels for mobile game overseas deployment with AI. The growth of Tencent's international games in 2026 may be a key focus. Meituan: Reviewing the food delivery war in 2025, subsidies are the key factor affecting short-term order volume growth, but long-term competitiveness depends on financial strength and operational capabilities. It focuses on monitoring changes in competition in the future, and if the trend of marginal market share recovery continues, it may trigger a new round of market trends. Baidu: It has announced the listing plan for Kunlun Silicon, and the asset revaluation under the background of AI is an important narrative. Focus on the progress of Kunlun Silicon's listing and the profitability improvement progress in the automatic driving business. Kuaishou: AI video overseas is a scarce target, the domestic model's cost-effectiveness path captures more global market share, and it focuses on the progress of subsequent revenue from the flexible income. Risk warnings: Macroeconomic fluctuations, downstream demand falling short of expectations, risks of core technology level upgrades falling short of expectations, competition intensifying under rapid AI iteration and egalitarianism, affecting the profit margins of cloud services.