National Bureau of Statistics interpretation: In December, China's purchasing managers' index all rose to the expansion range.

In the December 31st release of the Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index by the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, Chief Statistician Huo Lihui of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation. In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and the Composite Purchasing Managers' Index Output Index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7%, respectively, each rising by 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. All three major indices rose to the expansion zone, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic sentiment. The full text reads: Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index in December entered the expansion zone - Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, interpreting the Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index in December 2025 On December 31, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the Chinese Purchasing Managers' Index. In response, Chief Statistician Huo Lihui of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation. In December, the Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and the Composite PMI Output Index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7%, respectively, rising by 0.9, 0.7, and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion zone, indicating an overall improvement in China's economic sentiment. I. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose above the critical point In December, the Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, entering the expansion zone for the first time since April. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 16 industries saw an increase in PMI from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the production and operation of relevant enterprises. (1) Both production and demand saw a significant rebound. The production index and new orders index were 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Especially, the new orders index reached the critical point for the first time in the second half of the year, indicating a significant expansion of production and demand in the manufacturing industry compared to the previous month. In terms of industries, the production and new orders indices of industries such as agricultural and sideline products processing, textiles, clothing, and computer communication and electronic equipment were above 53.0%, indicating a significant expansion of production and demand. However, the indices of non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting and processing were below the critical point, indicating continued pressure on the industry. Driven by the recovery of production and demand in the manufacturing industry, enterprise procurement activities accelerated, with the procurement volume index rising to the expansion zone at 51.1%. (2) PMI for large enterprises re-entered the expansion zone. The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, rising by 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, entering above the critical point; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.8%, rising by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment; the PMI for small enterprises was 48.6%, decreasing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in economic sentiment. (3) PMI for key industries were higher than the previous month. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 52.5%, rising by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a good industry growth momentum. The PMI for equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 50.4%, rising by 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, respectively, both entering the expansion zone. The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries was 48.9%, rising by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continuing recovery in economic sentiment. (4) Expectation indices rose to high economic sentiment zones. The operational expectation index was 55.5%, rising by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an increased confidence in market development among manufacturing enterprises. In terms of industries, driven by factors such as pre-holiday stocking, industries such as agricultural and sideline products processing, food, and refined tea production saw their operational expectation indices rise above 60.0%, indicating a more optimistic outlook for industry development in the near future. II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index returned to the expansion zone In December, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, rising by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in non-manufacturing economic sentiment. (1) Slight improvement in service industry sentiment. The service industry business activity index was 49.7%, rising by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of industries, the business activity indices for industries such as telecommunications, broadcasting, television, satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, and capital market services were all above 60.0%, indicating fast business volume growth. On the other hand, the business activity indices for retail and catering industries were in contraction, indicating a low economic sentiment level. In terms of market expectations, the service industry's business activity expectation index was 56.4%, rising by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an increased confidence in future market development among service industry enterprises. (2) Significant improvement in construction industry sentiment. Influenced by high temperatures in some southern provinces recently and enterprises rushing to seize construction progress before the holidays, the construction industry business activity index was 52.8%, rising by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the construction industry sentiment. In terms of market expectations, the construction industry's business activity expectation index was 57.4%, remaining in a high economic sentiment zone, indicating optimistic expectations for the industry's recent development. III. The Composite PMI Output Index rose to a recent high In December, the Composite PMI Output Index was 50.7%, rising by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general expansion in the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the Composite PMI Output Index were 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively. Source: National Bureau of Statistics; GMTEight Editor: Huang Xiaodong.