Standard & Poor's warns: The U.S. car market may "reverse downward" in 2026, with sales of light vehicles expected to decrease by 2.5%.

According to S&P Global, Inc., the latest forecast for the US light vehicle sales in 2026 is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to the previous year, with total sales dropping to 15.89 million units. Chris Hopson of S&P Global, Inc. issued a warning, stating, "The already cautious consumer base, combined with potential price increases by automakers, will directly result in weaker sales performance in 2026 compared to 2025." The company pointed out that after a brief surge at the beginning of the year, the pure electric vehicle (BEV) market is showing a significant "downshift" trend. This phenomenon is a result of the "pre-selling" effect in the third quarter - a rush to complete transactions before the expiration of federal tax incentives, leading to an oversupply of electric vehicles. As a result, BEV sales experienced a sharp decline in the fourth quarter, with a market share of only about 6% in December. As the market gradually adjusts to the new environment after the subsidy reduction, this soft trend is expected to continue into the first half of 2026. In addition to the slowing electric vehicle market, S&P Global, Inc.'s automotive analysis believes that the core factor inhibiting overall vehicle sales momentum is the issue of affordability. The organization's report shows that over the past two years, the high cost of purchasing a car has continuously weakened market growth momentum, and this structural challenge still stubbornly persists. This ongoing price pressure is casting a shadow over consumer car purchase decisions and the market positioning of automakers in 2026, creating an atmosphere of uncertainty in the market. Stock targets include: Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR (TM.US), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US), General Motors Company (GM.US), Honda Motor Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (HMC.US), Ferrari NV (RACE.US), Ford (F.US), Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (NSANY.US), Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, Stellantis (STLA.US), Rivian (RIVN.US), Subaru Corporation (FUJHY.US). Component targets include: Adient (ADNT.US), Allison Transmission (ALSN.US), American Axle & Mfg(AXL.US), Aptiv (APTV.US), Autoliv (ALV.US), BorgWarner (BWA.US), China Automotive Systems, Inc. (CAAS.US), Cooper-Standard (CPS.US), Dana (DAN.US), Douglas Dynamics (PLOW.US), Garrett Motion (GTX.US), Gentex (GNTX.US), Gentherm (THRM.US), Johnson Controls (JCI.US), Lear (LEA.US), LKQ (LKQ.US).