Guosheng: J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) rated as "buy", with a fair value of HK$12.90.

Guosheng issued a research report stating that the e-commerce dividends brought by Southeast Asia and new markets have led to the growth of J&T EXPRESS-W (01519), improving the profitability of the company in China, and will jointly drive the company's future performance. The bank predicts that J&T Express's adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 371 million/571 million/764 million US dollars, with year-on-year growth rates of 85.2%/54.0%/33.8%, corresponding to adjusted EPS of 0.040/0.061/0.083 US dollars per share. Considering the high growth potential of the company in the Southeast Asian and Latin American and Middle Eastern markets, the bank gives the company a 2026 target P/E ratio of 27x, combining the company's 2026 adjusted EPS forecast of 0.061 US dollars per share, corresponding to a fair value of 12.90 Hong Kong dollars, and a "buy" rating. Guosheng's main points are as follows: Global layout of the express dark horse, three regions jointly drive high growth J&T Express is a global express enterprise that rose in Southeast Asia, successfully expanded to China, and Latin America and the Middle East, with an express network covering 13 countries. Currently, the core investment logic lies in the fact that the company is simultaneously benefiting from the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in Southeast Asia, the profitability recovery and standardization output in China under the "anti-indoctrination" trend, and the explosive growth of e-commerce in new markets. Southeast Asia: Profit anchor, riding the wave of social e-commerce Southeast Asia is the company's founding market and profit "anchor", with a stable market share ranking first in the industry. In 2025, the company successfully seized the strategic opportunity of explosive growth of TikTokShop in Southeast Asia, by deeply cooperating to undertake its mainstream parcel volume, driving market share to continue to rise to 32.8% (2025H1). In the first three quarters of 2025, parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65% year-on-year, and adjusted EBIT in the first half of 2025 increased by 74% year-on-year. Through continuous cost optimization and operational experience empowerment, while gaining market share, the company has maintained a healthy profitability, and the Southeast Asian market is expected to continue to maintain a high growth rate in the next 5 years and contribute significantly to profit growth. China: Scale foundation, overseas standard output base The Chinese market contributes to approximately 75% of the company's parcel volume. The advanced and mature express technology and experience that the company has developed in China are being systemically empowered to Southeast Asia and new markets, helping to gain technological and experiential advantages in foreign countries, continuously reduce costs, enhance overseas competitiveness, and synergize global regional advantages. Moreover, with the progress of the "anti-indoctrination" trend in the Chinese express industry in the second half of the year and the implementation of price increases in many regions, express single ticket revenue has clearly rebounded, and profitability in the Chinese region is expected to improve. New markets: Unlimited potential in blue ocean positioning The total GDP and per capita levels of the new markets in Latin America and the Middle East are higher than those in Southeast Asia, but the e-commerce penetration rate is low, indicating enormous development potential as the e-commerce market is accelerating in 2025. With its mature regional agent model and global network capabilities, the company has collaborated with leading platforms such as Meiku Duo and TikTok Shop in new markets, steadily increasing market share in fragmented markets. In the first three quarters of 2025, parcel volume in new markets increased by 31% year-on-year; in the first half of 2025, new markets achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, and operations are on track. With rapid business volume growth and economies of scale, it is expected to achieve adjusted EBIT profit in 2025. In the medium to long term, new markets are gradually becoming an important engine for the company's growth.