Risk aversion demand, central bank buying and weakening US dollar will resonate threefold, and gold and silver prices are expected to achieve the largest annual increase in 46 years.

Gold and silver prices are expected to record their largest annual increase since 1979 in 2025. After a relatively stable trend at the beginning of the year, precious metal prices began to accelerate in late April, against the backdrop of market volatility triggered by the global tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, intensifying concerns among investors about trade prospects and the status of the US dollar. Data shows that gold prices have risen by nearly 70% in 2025, while silver has seen an increase of over 160% so far this year, with a single-month increase of over 30% in December alone. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade policies is widely believed to weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar globally, thereby driving funds towards precious metals seen as "safe-haven assets." In contrast to precious metals, the US dollar has been declining relative to a basket of major currencies such as the Euro and the Yen by over 9% since 2025. Analysts point out that the weakening of the US dollar further amplifies the potential for price increases for gold and silver priced in dollars. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets stated in a report on December 22 that one of the reasons for gold's rise this year is that "central banks and investors are increasingly recognizing gold as a non-sovereign asset." They believe that the current macroeconomic environment embodies several historical factors that have historically driven gold prices upward. The continuous purchases by global central banks have provided solid support for gold prices. Data shows that central banks have been net buyers of gold for several consecutive months. In October (latest available data), central banks collectively added 53 tons of gold, which to some extent tightened the market's available supply, driving up overall prices. Additionally, after the announcement of Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariff policy, traders and several large banks quickly moved their gold and silver stocks to the US in an attempt to position themselves before the tariffs officially took effect. London has always been the world's most important clearing center for precious metals, and in recent years, New York has also added a large number of bullion storage facilities. Many of the metal stocks that flowed into the US before the tariffs this year are still stored there. The rise in silver is driven by both safe-haven and industrial properties. Silver is widely used in electronic circuits, switches, electric cars, and CECEP Solar Energy products, benefiting from the expansion of new energy and industrial demand. However, due to its lower price compared to gold (currently around $77 per ounce, while gold is over $4300), silver has greater volatility and is more easily influenced by retail trading. On December 26, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) CEO Elon Musk stated on the social platform X that the significant rise in silver prices "is not a good thing" and pointed out that silver is a key material in many industrial processes. Following this statement, silver prices briefly fell, but then rebounded. After a single-day drop of over 8% on Monday, silver rebounded by about 10% during Tuesday's trading. Gold also experienced a temporary pullback. Gold prices fell by over 4% on Monday and slightly rebounded on Tuesday. Chris Waterbury, a manager at Jiaxin Wealth Management, stated that profit-taking and news regarding progress towards peace in Ukraine could be significant catalysts for the short-term decline in gold prices. On Monday, Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with both sides releasing relatively optimistic signals after the meeting. In terms of fund flows, precious metal ETFs continue to attract investors. The world's most well-known gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD.US), has seen net inflows of over $20 billion so far this year; the main silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV.US), has also seen inflows of nearly $3.5 billion. The World Gold Council has pointed out that gold ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive months until November, showing that ordinary investors are actively participating in this round of precious metal trends.