Zheshang: It is expected that the overall trend of the bond market will be "short strength, long weakness", and investors' focus will shift to fiscal policy.

Zheshang released a research report stating that looking ahead to January at the end of December, investors are more focused on predicting the future trends of the bond market: unanimously expecting to maintain a preference for medium and short-term interest rate bonds, with an overall defensive bias at the operational level. The strength and pace of fiscal policy, as well as the pressure of government bond supply, have become the core points of concern for investors. Zheshang's main points are as follows: Based on the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, the bank summarized five mainstream expectations of investors for the bond market in December: (1) Investors have a neutral judgment on the expected range of long-term government bond yields, which continue to fluctuate within a range of "top and bottom"; (2) "Short strong, long weak" is the mainstream expectation of investors for the overall trend of the bond market; (3) At the operational level of the bond market, investors have a neutral stance, with holding onto cash watching and maintaining positions being the mainstream viewpoints; (4) Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the core issues of concern for investors, while monetary policy and liquidity still remain the focus of bond investors; (5) Investors' preference for medium and short-term interest rate bonds is increasing. How will the bond market perform in January? The survey results show that investors have not formed a strong consensus on the direction of the bond market in January, presenting a pattern of "cautious optimism, dominated by structure." Short-term rates are more favored due to the loose liquidity environment, while long-term rates are approached with caution due to potential fundamental repairs, supply pressure, or policy expectations, leading to "short strong, long weak" as the most mainstream market expectation. How should the current bond market be operated? In December, most investors have a neutral approach at the operational level, with holding onto cash and waiting for a pullback to the expected level before increasing positions and maintaining positions being the mainstream viewpoint. The proportion of investors starting to increase positions has slightly decreased, from 14% in the November survey to 11%, indicating a shift towards defensive positioning in the market. Some investors are more cautious, as the proportion of investors controlling risks with shorter durations has increased compared to the November survey results. What is the main logic for pricing the bond market in January? The focus of bond investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" as the core. The strength and pace of fiscal stimulus, as well as the resulting government bond supply pressure, have become the primary concerns and potential sources of volatility in the short term. Traditional expectations of monetary easing serve as the underlying support for the market. The balance and game between the two may dominate the direction and structure of the bond market in the next stage. Which bond varieties are most favored in January? Looking ahead to January, investors are showing a clear shift in asset preferences in terms of maturity structure. The market consensus leans towards increasing allocation to medium and short-term interest rate bonds, while preferences for interbank certificates of deposit continue to rise. Conversely, the willingness to allocate to long-term rate bonds has slightly weakened, reflecting that investors may focus more on liquidity protection and short-term certainty rather than long-term exposure at this stage. Risk Warning: The sample coverage of investors may not be complete; the views and behaviors of investors may be biased; investors' viewpoints may change rapidly with market shifts; market research content is for information reference only and does not represent analysts' specific investment opinions.