Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting is imminent, and Goldman Sachs supports the narrative of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. In the pre-market of the US stock market on December 30 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures fell by 0.06%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.07%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.10%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose by 0.25%, the UK's FTSE 100 index rose by 0.35%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.29%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.46%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.34% to $58.28 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.34% to $61.70 per barrel. Market News Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. supports the narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy: "Tariff headwinds dissipate + tax cuts + rate cuts" driving growth. Recently, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. released a research report stating that the strong growth resilience of the US economy expected in 2025 is likely to continue after 2026, as the tax cut provisions in the "big and beautiful" law led by the Trump administration and more favorable loose financial conditions begin to take effect, along with a significant easing of headwinds from tariffs and inflation. The macro-narrative of a "soft landing" for the US economy is expected to heat up significantly in 2026 - that is, the growth rate of the US economy in 2026 is expected to be faster than market expectations. The team of economists at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. emphasized that factors such as the ongoing construction of AI data centers, a significant reduction in the effects of over $100 billion in tax refunds and tariffs, and the Fed's rate-cutting path will collectively boost economic growth momentum. Bank of America Corp's CEO warns: the market has gone mad, too much focus on the Fed is misguided! Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America Corp, pointed out that the size of the US economy far exceeds the Federal Reserve, and the latter should not occupy so much public attention. When asked about Trump's imminent nomination of a new Fed chairman to replace Powell and what this means for consumers, Moynihan said, "People are too obsessed with the Fed." "The idea that our fate is tied to a 25 basis point rate adjustment by the Fed is simply a mess in my opinion." However, when asked about concerns about political interference in the Fed's decision-making process once the new chair takes over, he responded, "If we lose an independent Fed, the market will punish us." As the countdown to the Fed's leadership change approaches, Trump warns: it is still possible to dismiss Powell. Trump suggested that he has a very preferential candidate for the next Fed chair, but is not in a rush to announce. At the same time, Trump also stated that he may still choose to dismiss current Fed chair Powell. Trump said Powell "should resign immediately," and "I really want to fire him." Trump came close to dismissing Powell in July, but backed down after negative market reactions and feedback from people like Bessette who believed that this move could threaten the Fed's independence and disrupt the market. Trump said, "Maybe I could still do it." Trump did not specify who his favored candidate for Fed chairman is, and said he will announce it "at some point in January." US bond volatility set to see largest annual decline since 2009. The latest statistics show that the ICE BofA MOVE Index - a key measure of expected volatility in the bond market - dropped significantly to about 59 at the close of the US stock market last Friday, hitting its lowest level since October 2021. This measure of volatility has dropped sharply from its historical high of around 99 at the end of 2024, and is expected to record one of the steepest annual declines since the index began officially tracking in 1988, second only to the sharp drop in 2009 after the financial crisis. If the US Treasury does indeed reduce net supply of 10-year and longer bonds as expected by the market in 2026 to significantly weaken the "term premium" and use short-term bills as more financing "buffers," in an environment of declining volatility, longer-term treasuries of 10 years or more may see better price performance compared to recent years when they underperformed compared to short-term bills. GEO Group Inc at risk as oversupply prospects outweigh, OPEC+ likely to reiterate halt on production increase in the first quarter of next week. Three sources revealed that as signs of global oil oversupply become increasingly apparent, OPEC+ is expected to stick to its plan to pause production increases at their meeting this weekend. Key members of OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will hold their monthly video conference on January 4th to review a decision made earlier in November to pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year after rapidly restoring oil production earlier this year. With increasing oil supply from OPEC+ and its competitors, as well as a slowdown in global demand growth, oil prices have already fallen by 17% this year and are expected to see the largest annual decline since 2020. Forecasting agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) predict a record oil oversupply next year. Stock-specific news AI dark horse Manus acquired by Meta (META.US), could become Zuckerberg's first "cash cow" in the $600 billion AI infrastructure. Meta has agreed to acquire the technology and core team of the artificial intelligence startup company Manus based in Singapore. This move will add a popular intelligent product to this social media giant's commercial layout driven by huge AI investments. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has positioned AI as the company's top priority, spending billions of dollars to recruit researchers, build data centers, and develop new models. Zuckerberg has pledged to invest $600 billion in US infrastructure projects over the next three years, most of which are related to AI. The company has assembled a high-cost research team and plans to launch a new state-of-the-art AI model next spring. However, such huge spending has raised concerns among some investors, who believe it may be difficult to significant revenue in the short term. Unhappy with frequent failures of the board's strategies, Lululemon (LULU.US) founder launches proxy fight for control. Lululemon founder Chip Wilson has launched a proxy fight, nominating three independent directors to the company's board. Just over two weeks ago, the apparel manufacturer announced the resignation of CEO Calvin McDonald, but has not yet determined a successor. Lululemon's stock has fallen by nearly half this year as the company strives to win support from young affluent consumers, while also facing fierce competition from rapidly growing emerging competitors like Alo Yoga and Vuori, as well as pressure from activist investor Elliott Management. "Crypto whale" Strategy (MSTR.US) makes another move: invests $109 million to buy more Bitcoin. Strategy disclosed that it purchased a total of 1,229 Bitcoins at a total price of $108.8 million between December 22nd and 28th. According to a filing submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), these latest Bitcoins were purchased at an average price of $88,568 per coin. The funds used to purchase these tokens came from ordinary stock issuance. The company's total holdings of Bitcoin have increased to 672,497 coins, with an average cost of $74,997 per coin, making the total value reach $50.4 billion. Despite Bitcoin's challenging performance this year, Strategy remains profitable. Rare move! Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) website breaks the news for the first time: Q4 delivery volume may see a "sharp decline." Tesla, Inc. recently published analyst estimates of vehicle delivery volumes on its official website, showing a more pessimistic average expectation for the current quarter than market compiled data. According to Tesla, Inc.'s own statistics, analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 15% decrease from the same period last year. In comparison, the market compiled average estimate is 445,061 vehicles, a 10% decrease year-over-year. While Tesla, Inc.'s investor relations team has compiled average delivery volume expectations for years, they have never publicly disclosed this data on their website. This automaker is facing the second consecutive year of declining annual sales, with its compiled average annual delivery volume estimate at 1.6 million vehicles, down more than 8% from the same period last year. Important Economic Data and Events Preview 22:45 Beijing time - US December Chicago PMI 03:00 Beijing time next day - Fed releases minutes of monetary policy meeting.