HK Stock Market Move | MGM China (02282) falls more than 3% again, with analysts at UBS lowering their adjusted EBITDA forecast and target price.

MGM CHINA (02282) fell over 3% again, with the stock plummeting by over 17% yesterday. As of the time of writing, it dropped by 3.33% to 12.48 Hong Kong dollars, with a trading volume of 1.18 billion Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, research from Credit Suisse stated that starting from 2026, MGM CHINA will increase the licensing fee rate paid to its parent company MGM Resorts International to 3.5%, higher than WYNN MACAU's 3% and Sands China's 1.5%. Although the bank believes that this measure will not affect MGM CHINA's property EBITDA, it still lowered its adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2026 and 2027 by 6.3% to 6.7%. In addition, the bank lowered MGM CHINA's target price from 22.6 Hong Kong dollars to 20.9 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining an "outperform" rating. Morgan Stanley predicts that MGM CHINA's brand usage fee in 2026 will reach 1.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, a significant increase from 600 million Hong Kong dollars in 2025. The report forecasts that MGM CHINA's enterprise EBITDA in 2026 will decrease by 7% compared to previous expectations, with a 5% year-over-year decrease, and the EBITDA profit margin will narrow by 220 basis points. The proportion of brand usage fees to enterprise EBITDA will rise to 15.2%.