Shanxi: Imported coal prices in November continue to rise, with the industry still having room for performance recovery after 26 years.

Shanxi releases research report, stating that the import prices of all types of coal have decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with prices of all coal types in November increasing month-on-month, with a relatively larger increase in thermal coal prices. The trend of the coal industry against "inner loop" has not changed, and there are still expectations for improved performance in the fourth quarter. If prices continue to remain high in the long term, there is still room for performance recovery in 2026. The decline in stock prices strengthens the dividend value, making it a good time to buy on dips. Main points from Shanxi: The trend of shrinking imported coal volume continues to slow down, with rising import prices In terms of import volume, the cumulative growth rate from January to November achieved -12.0%, showing a continued shrinking trend in cumulative import coal volume; the year-on-year growth rate of monthly imported coal has remained negative for nine consecutive months, with an 19.88% decrease year-on-year and a 5.53% increase month-on-month in November. Looking at different types of coal, all four major types showed a positive month-on-month growth, with anthracite coal showing the fastest increase. The small month-on-month increase in thermal coal is mainly due to increased imports from Mongolia and Russia; the small month-on-month increase in coking coal is mainly due to contributions from Mongolia; the month-on-month increase in brown coal is mainly due to contributions from Indonesia; and the month-on-month increase in anthracite coal is mainly from Russia. In terms of prices, the import prices of all types of coal in November reached $73 per ton, maintaining a downward trend compared to the same period last year, with a $1.42 per ton increase month-on-month in November. Looking at different types of coal, the import prices of all types of coal have decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with prices of all coal types in November increasing month-on-month, with a relatively larger increase in thermal coal prices. Can the "decreasing volume and increasing price" of imported coal in November indicate a relatively tighter supply and demand overseas? In November, domestic imported coal showed the characteristics of "decreasing volume and increasing price". In the past few years, November has often been a peak season for imported coal, with import volumes significantly higher than other months of the year. In November 2025, the year-on-year import of coal saw a significant decrease, with a limited month-on-month increase. Considering the slight increase in imported coal prices in November, there may be a tightening of supply and demand overseas. However, the Bank noted that the month-on-month increase in domestic coal prices in November was significantly higher than abroad, speculating that the rise in domestic coal prices in November may be more dependent on the forced stocking of domestic coal, which relies more on domestic supply. Therefore, it is still uncertain whether the speculation of tightened supply and demand overseas is valid. Expectations of further reduction in Indonesian imported coal in the future In December 2025, Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa confirmed that the government does plan to impose export duties on coal starting next year, with the duty rate expected to be between 1-5%. However, local Indonesian media are still waiting for technical regulations related to coal export duties. Considering the expectations of policy tightening in Indonesia, there may be expectations of a reduction in coal exports to China in the future. Risk Warning: Domestic demand lower than expected, significant increase in domestic supply, and large drop in international coal prices.