CITIC SEC: Although the registration certificate for collagen has not yet reached its maximum, the current industry is still in a period of dividends.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that from the demand perspective, consumers have a strong awareness of collagen, leading to high demand. From the supply perspective, the number of registrations for natural collagen and recombinant collagen is increasing trend. In the short term, the overall number of registrations is within a reasonable range, with few products actually on the market, high prices, and insufficient supply to meet the demand of beauty seekers. The industry is still in a dividend period, and those who obtain certification can find suitable ecological niches. In the medium term, with the increase in registrations, brands with strong product differentiation will be competitive, with differentiation highly dependent on materials and the technology and processes behind them. In the long term, the competitive differences brought about by products themselves among brands will diminish, and in the diversified market, the comprehensive strength of "product + channel + marketing" will play a greater role. CITIC SEC's main points are as follows: Collagen: Consumers have strong awareness, high demand; although the number of registrations has increased, the industry is still in a dividend period. According to Cheetah Research Institute, based on factory prices, the market size of medical aesthetic injectables in 2024 in China is estimated to be about 26.8 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 26.4%. By 2028, the market size will increase to 65.3 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 24.9% during this period. It is estimated that the CAGR of collagen products in the medical aesthetics field from 2024 to 2028 will be 50.7%. Based on company announcements, the structure of the medical aesthetics industry channels, and the usual business models of companies, we estimate that in 2024, the combined sales revenue of the top two collagen medical aesthetic injectables will be around 1.5 billion yuan at factory prices, corresponding to a total market size of about 5.4 billion yuan; the total market size of authentic products is expected to be around 6 to 7 billion yuan. Overall, collagen medical aesthetic injectable products have high prices, and the demand of beauty seekers is not yet fully met. With more registrations being implemented and entering the market, we predict that in the future, there will be products in the high (>10,000 yuan per unit), medium (4,000-6,000 yuan per unit), and low price range (500-2,000 yuan per unit), catering to various demands of beauty seekers and greatly increasing the penetration rate of medical aesthetics, while also increasing the share of collagen injectables in bio-materials in the field of medical aesthetics. Natural collagen: In 2025, four new registrations will be issued, focusing on materials, indications, concentrations, and other dimensions for innovation, differentiation in pricing, and entry into a stage of scaled-up expansion. According to the NMPA official website, there are already 10 registrations for natural collagen from 7 companies in the track of natural collagen. Since the beginning of 2025, 4 additional registrations have been issued: 2 for Collegen Biotech, 1 for Ibri Biotech, and 1 for Chongshan Biotech. Existing registrations are as follows: 1) Based on materials: 4 registrations for natural collagen products are sourced from pigskin, accounting for about 40%; 5 are from bovine skin, accounting for 50%; and 1 is from bovine Achilles tendon, accounting for 10%. 2) Based on indications: 6 registrations for natural collagen products are for correcting the nasolabial fold area, accounting for about 60%; 3 are for the forehead area, accounting for 30%; currently, there is only 1 registration for the cheek area and 1 for the nose area. 3) From the type perspective, most are Type I collagen products, with 8 registrations, accounting for 80%; with 2 being Type I+III, accounting for 20%. 4) From the crosslinking perspective, there are currently 7 registrations for non-crosslinked collagen products, accounting for 70%; and 3 registered for crosslinked collagen products, accounting for 30%. 5) In terms of specifications, they are mostly 0.5ml and 1.0ml, with the largest single dose being 2.5ml for Collegen Biotech's product, named Corry Quire Rayen. 6) Price range is wide: different sizes and products have prices ranging from 2,000 yuan to nearly 20,000 yuan. Industry leaders are actively expanding into the field of natural collagen through mergers and acquisitions and agency agreements. The products that were originally approved are limited in production capacity, process, channels, and marketing capabilities, and have not been fully launched; new products approved since 2025 are expected to break through constraints in material sourcing, dosage form, process, and concentration, driving rapid expansion in the natural collagen market. Recombinant collagen: Currently, the number of products that have been approved and actually launched is limited, and new brands that are approved can occupy a good ecological niche; there are many projects in research and development, but homogeneity is severe, and only products with strong differentiation can stand out in the future. In the long term, companies with strong comprehensive strength in "product + channel + marketing", as well as businesses that are moderately diversified and have strong synergy, can grow and strengthen. According to the NMPA official website, as of December 2025, there are a total of 5 approvals for three types of recombinant collagen medical aesthetic injectable products (Giant Biogene 1, Jinbo 3, and Chuangjian Medical 1), among which, Jinbo's 3 registrations and Chuangjian Medical's 1 registration are all Type III collagen, and Giant Biogene's first registration is Type I collagen. Based on incomplete information from company announcements, the NMPA official website, and channels such as the Medactive WeChat public account, we believe that in 2026, there may be new products (including Giant Biogene, Chuangjian Medical, Peptide Source Biotech, and PolySource Biotech) that may be approved in low single-digit numbers. In terms of research and development, the current known projects mainly focus on Type III, freeze-dried, solution, and gel aspects, with high similarity. However, looking ahead, we believe that in the future, companies will intensify their efforts in developing types (such as Type XVII, Type VII, etc.), amino acid sequences (full length vs. fragments), spatial structures (triple helix vs. multiple helices), and composite use with other biomaterials. Therefore, it is important to focus on companies that have obtained registrations and are benefiting from early market entries; in the future, attention should be paid to product differentiation and innovation; in the long term, focus on the comprehensive strength of companies in terms of products, marketing, and channels. Risk factors: Tightening approval policies for collagen products, industrialization falling short of expectations; rapid increase in the supply of collagen medical aesthetic products leading to a deteriorating competitive landscape, with profitability in various segments of the industry chain falling short of expectations; negative public sentiment affecting the development of the collagen medical aesthetic industry; economic weakness leading to a downturn in optional consumption such as medical aesthetics; technological advancements leading to diversion or replacement of existing materials by new collagen biomaterials. Investment strategy: The technology and processes of natural collagen and recombinant collagen are continuously improving, with expanding application scenarios. The gradual increase in approved collagen products will enrich indications, improve price tiers, expand the consumer base, and increase market penetration. Currently, although the number of registrations for natural collagen and recombinant collagen products is increasing, it is far from saturation, providing opportunities for all companies to expand their share of the industry cake and find their ecological niche in the medical aesthetics market. Recommendations: 1) The approval of frozen fiber registrations for recombinant collagen is expected to be launched in the first half of 2026; meanwhile, recombinant collagen solutions and gels are expected to be approved in 2026, potentially becoming the second growth curve for the company; 2) By entering the field of natural collagen through acquisitions, companies are steadily advancing in the research and clinical development of medical aesthetic Class III devices, aiming to become new forces in the existing matrix of medical aesthetic biomaterials; 3) Companies with strong experience in pharmaceutical research and evaluation, through agency and independent research, are strategically positioning themselves in both natural collagen and recombinant collagen. (Note: This is a summary of the translation as the original text is lengthy.)