Year-end review of commodities: energy is weak, precious metals are bullish! Will the 2026 "gold rush" trend turn towards non-ferrous metals?

Global commodity market prices are expected to show a clear trend of differentiation in 2025, with the main characteristics being the decline in energy and Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group prices, while precious metals (such as gold and silver) and industrial metals (such as copper) prices continue to rise and hit new highs. This situation is mainly influenced by various factors such as changes in global demand, geopolitical tensions, adjustments in monetary policies, and the development of new energy industries. This differentiation is expected to continue until 2026, as energy prices are expected to further decline due to oversupply, while precious metals prices will continue to rise. Energy Crude oil 2025 review: The global crude oil market in 2025 experienced a volatile trend of "rise and then fall, shifting downwards," with the Brent crude oil price center finally falling to the range of $60-70 per barrel. In the first half of the year, geopolitical friction and policy changes were the core drivers of oil price volatility. At the beginning of the year, due to the upgrading of US sanctions on Russia's energy sector, safe-haven sentiment pushed the Brent oil price to a high point of $83; subsequently, the market fluctuated between the policy expectations of the Trump administration "increasing drilling" and the tough sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. In the second quarter, as the "comprehensive trade tariffs" policy triggered concerns about global demand contraction and the threat to energy channels posed by the escalation of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices experienced a significant washout from sharp declines to high-level falls. During this phase, the repeated switching of geopolitical premiums constituted the main tone of the market. In the second half of the year, the logic of the crude oil market shifted from "geopolitical-driven" to "strong supply and weak demand," and oil prices started a trend of continuous decline. On the supply side, OPEC+ adjusted its strategy from cutting production to progressively increasing production in stages to regain market share, coupled with record high US crude oil production, leading to rapid accumulation of global inventories. On the demand side, influenced by factors such as global economic slowdown, accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, and structural transformation of transportation energy sources, oil demand growth significantly weakened, with daily increases falling to below 800,000 barrels. With the appearance of a peaceful dawn in Ukraine at the end of the year, geopolitical premiums further receded, and under the strong expectation of oversupply, Brent and WTI oil prices were generally under pressure. Outlook for 2026: In 2026, the crude oil market will face more severe oversupply pressure, and the center of oil prices is expected to further decline. 2025 was a turning year for the crude oil market, and 2026 will be a year of deep adjustment. The market has entered a phase of "seller dominance," and as long as the core contradiction of oversupply is not resolved, oil prices will continue to be under pressure. Investors need to pay attention to the policy adjustments of OPEC+ in the second quarter of 2026 and potential geopolitical premiums in the Middle East and other regions. On the supply side, OPEC+ faces a dilemma. Although the alliance announced a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of 2026 and plans to extend the production cut agreement until the end of the year, the pressure from the release of idle production capacity accumulated in the past few years remains immense. At the same time, non-OPEC+ countries led by the US, Brazil, and Guyana continue to increase production momentum, with the IEA predicting that global total supply will increase by approximately 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. On the demand side, affected by the global economic slowdown and the accelerated energy transition, the weak demand trend is difficult to reverse. The IEA predicts that demand growth in 2026 will be only about 860,000 barrels per day, leading to a huge surplus of approximately 2 to 3.8 million barrels per day in the market. The EIA also warns that overflowing commercial inventories may force oil prices to touch temporary lows. Based on this, authoritative institutions generally have a bearish view on oil prices in 2026. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict that the average price of Brent crude oil will fall to the range of $56-60 per barrel, and the EIA is more pessimistic, suggesting that prices may dip as low as $51 in the first quarter. Overall, 2026 will be a year dominated by "competition in production," and the energy production trend of the Trump administration compared with the market share protection battle of OPEC+ will jointly suppress international oil prices, causing them to fluctuate and establish a bottom at low levels. Natural gas 2025 review: The global natural gas market in 2025 exhibited features of "highs and lows, differentiation between Europe and the Americas." After experiencing a weak 2024, the first half of this year saw a surge in prices due to unseasonably low temperatures at the beginning of the year and the expiration of the Ukrainian transit agreement leading to Russian gas supply reductions. Prices surged in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with the average price reaching $4.5 per MMBtu in Henry Hub at one point. However, with new capacity like the Plaquemines facility in the US coming online, coupled with a slowdown in energy consumption growth due to energy structure adjustments in Asia, global supply constraints were significantly eased. The market quickly shifted focus from supply tightness to "seasonal surplus," causing rapid accumulation of inventories and a subsequent downward trend in global gas prices. By the fourth quarter, the market evolved into a dramatic and dramatic differentiation. The US, impacted by the La Nia phenomenon and Arctic cold waves, saw a surge in heating demand leading to natural gas prices hitting a three-year high of $5 per MMBtu in early December, showing extreme strength. Meanwhile, the European market experienced a "continued decline" in TTF prices due to diversification in supply routes, continued weakness in industrial demand, and easing geopolitical tensions. Outlook for 2026: In 2026, the global natural gas market will undergo a key transition from "tight balance" to "periodic relaxation." Influenced by concentrated new production capacity releases in the US, Qatar, and Canada, global LNG production capacity is expected to increase by 7%, the largest increase since 2019. Despite ample supply, the rigid power consumption driven by AI data center construction and the demand rebound in price-sensitive regions of Asia due to falling gas prices from restructuring will lead to a steady 2% increase in total global demand. This supply-demand game sets a high bottom support for gas prices, as well as making geopolitical factors and extreme weather key variables that can disrupt the market. The US market, driven by concentrated LNG exports and AI data center electricity demand, is expected to see an optimistic price outlook, with major banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, predicting an average price hike to $4.5-5 per MMBtu. However, the global liquefied natural gas market faces the risk of its largest oversupply due to the surge in supply from the US and Qatar pressing on the market. Institutions warn that with supply growth (10%) far exceeding demand growth (2%), the market may have to stimulate consumption in price-sensitive regions like South Asia through price reductions, leading to a significant drop in benchmark prices (TTF/JKM). Uranium 2025 review: The uranium market underwent a transformation from "de-bubbling" to "structural support," showing a significant "U-shaped" price rebound trend. In the first half of the year, affected by speculative funds withdrawing and macroeconomic pressures, spot prices hit a low point of about $63 per pound in mid-March, completing a deep digestion of the overheated surge seen in 2024. However, with the resumption of purchases by Sprott physical funds, nuclear tender restarts, and substantial demand for nuclear energy from AI data centers, prices steadily rebounded and broke through $83 per pound in September, ending the year in the range of $81-83 per pound. It is worth noting that in terms of supply and demand structure, this year further highlighted the contradiction of "fragile supply and surging demand." On the supply side, disturbances in production in Kazakhstan and continued production bottlenecks in Western mines continue to exist; on the demand side, tech giants' deep involvement in the nuclear energy sector through power purchase agreements, along with the global "de-Russification" supply chain restructuring, have led nuclear plant owners to have a strong willingness to lock in long-term contracts. Despite volatile spot prices, long-term contract prices have remained strong at over $80 per pound, reflecting market concerns about a significant supply gap in the next decade. 2025 was not only a period of consolidation for uranium prices but also a crucial year for the repricing of nuclear energy as a core asset of energy security. Outlook for 2026: Therefore, entering 2026, the consensus expectation of Wall Street investment banks and authoritative institutions regarding uranium prices has shifted from "bottom shaking" to "accelerated upward movement." Goldman Sachs predicts that driven by accelerated global nuclear power construction and reactor life extension, the spot price of uranium by the end of 2026 will climb to $91 per pound, with a premium potential of 20%; Bank of America offers a more aggressive outlook, projecting a peak price of $135 per pound. Industry authorities such as Sprott and the World Nuclear Association (WNA) point out that with the end of destocking in 2025, 2026 will see a peak period of utility companies restocking and signing long-term contracts, while supply contractions from main producing areas like Kazakhstan will exacerbate the shortage. The mainstream view is that $80 has become a solid price floor, and with the dual push of the massive power demand from AI data centers and the challenges facing the supply side, uranium prices in 2026 have the driving force to challenge the three-digit threshold, perhaps even reenacting a historical explosive growth as part of the energy transition. Metals Precious metals 2025 review: From an annual performance perspective, precious metals had an "epic" year in 2025. Gold rose by about 70% during the year, while silver saw an increase of over 160%, both potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979, continuing their strong performance from 2024. Factors driving the upward trend included central banks' continued buying, inflows of funds into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Fed. The lower interest rate environment weakened the opportunity cost of interest-free assets, and the market also bet on further rate cuts in 2026. In addition to gold and silver, platinum and palladium also saw a frenzy, with increases of 160% and 100%, respectively. Furthermore, the hardline stance taken by Trump earlier in the year to reshape the global trade landscape, as well as remarks about the independence of the Federal Reserve, also added fuel to the rally in precious metals. As government debt expanded and the allure of sovereign bonds and their issuing currencies declined, investors turned to so-called "currency devaluation trades," further supporting demand for precious metals. The resurgence of silver, platinum, and palladium was also driven by their industrial attributes, with the "green energy transition" and "supply chain vulnerability" emerging as the strongest drivers of price, beyond the financial aspects. Faced with five consecutive years of supply deficits and historically low inventories, silver saw a bullish trend this year, driven by requirements in photovoltaic technology and the demand for electronic pastes in AI servers. Platinum benefited from the dual drivers of energy transition and traditional industries. With the beginning of the commercialization of the hydrogen energy industry, demand for platinum from electrolytic cells shifted from expectations to physical orders, while delays in fuel bans and the process of "replacing palladium with platinum," combined with reduced production at the mining end in South Africa, exacerbated supply-demand imbalances. Although palladium had been suppressed by prolonged electrification, a surge in sales of hybrid vehicles this year maintained the baseline demand. After a bearish start to the year followed by supply disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and large-scale short covering towards the end of the year, palladium saw a rebound. Outlook for 2026: Wall Street investment banks and authoritative institutions generally expect a transition in the bull market for precious metals in 2026 from "unilateral general gains" to a new stage of "high-level consolidation and value exploration." Leading banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America foresee continued gains for gold, driven by global central bank strategic acquisitions, the Fed's interest rate reduction cycle, and dollar credit anxiety as core drivers. They broadly predict that the average price of gold in 2026 will range between $4500 and $4800, with a potential to challenge the $5000 mark. The World Bank also points out that although the rate of increase may slow down due to a higher base, physical demand and hedging premiums will provide a strong bottom support for gold prices. Silver and the platinum group metals are seen as the more explosive "dark horses" of 2026. The consensus among institutions is that silver, while experiencing a structural supply-demand gap in the fields of photovoltaics and AI, has already pushed past $80 per ounce with the potential expectations being priced in; however, the high silver price may curb demand from downstream jewelry and electronic industries, leading to a continued high-level fluctuation in the silver price with an average expectation ranging from $56 to $65 per ounce, which is considered a relatively conservative forecast; some more aggressive views even see it reaching $80-100 per ounce. Platinum, benefiting from several years of supply deficits and the realization of physical orders in the hydrogen energy industry, is expected to experience a rare price surge destined for $2400. In contrast, expectations for palladium are more varied, with institutions warning of the long-term suppression from the electrification process on demand and believing its trend will depend more on geopolitical premiums and supply side disruptions. Base metals 2025 review: The global industrial metals market revealed an extremely differentiated pattern in 2025 due to the intertwining of "transition from old to new dynamics" and "regional supply localization." Metals like copper and tin led the way in opening the "artificial intelligence and electric power cycle." Copper prices hit historical highs multiple times in 2025, with prices breaking the $12700 per ton level. The core logic has shifted from traditional construction to the extension of AI data centers and structural demand brought by global power grid upgrades, combined with supply disruptions in mineral-rich countries like Chile and Peru and cross-regional inventory squeezes caused by trade tariffs, making copper the most dominant metal of the year. Tin closely followed the strong recovery in the semiconductor industry, with prices surging significantly and showing strong upward elasticity, driven by uncertainties in supply from Myanmar and Indonesia. In sharp contrast, new energy battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel faced a period of "deep consolidation" and supply clearing in 2025. Lithium experienced a brutal cost defense battle in the first half of the year, with lithium carbonate briefly falling below some mine costs, pressuring high-cost production shutdowns in Australia and Africa. With the resurgence of demand for energy storages and industry self-regulated production cuts in the downstream, lithium carbonate underwent a phase of bottom formation near 6,000 CNY/ton. Nickel prices were affected by continuous expansion in High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) capacity in Indonesia, maintaining an oversupply situation throughout the year and price rebounds were restrained by a spike in LME inventories. Although cobalt emerged from a downward trend, due to export quota restrictions implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply situation turned tense, leading to a significant price spike towards the end of the year. Furthermore, aluminum and zinc showed more resilience in the face of ongoing challenges. In 2025, aluminum and zinc, two major industrial metals, demonstrated high-level fluctuations in a phase of firm support. Aluminum prices particularly stood strong due to robust AI data center demand, high alumina raw material prices, and global restrictions on aluminum production; prices remained centered around $2500-2700 per ton. At the same time, the green low-carbon aluminum premium significantly expanded in 2025. Zinc prices showed a "restraint-first, rebound-second" trend, with prices falling to yearly lows in the first half due to tariff pressures and expectations of oversupply, then rebounding in the second half due to declining smelting capacity following the reduction of processing fees, combined with support from new energy and infrastructure demand, triggering a bottom rebound that briefly surpassed $3200. Outlook for 2026: In 2026, institutions reflect a complex situation regarding base metals with a forecast of "copper and tin leading, lithium and nickel recovering, aluminum and zinc differentiating." Copper and tin remain favorites in the eyes of institutions. Investment banks predict that due to data center expansions, global grid upgrades, and physical squeezes, copper prices will hit a historical high in the first half of 2026, reaching near $15,000 per ton, followed by a temporary consolidation above the ten-thousand-point mark. Tin prices are set to surge towards $44,000 per ton, benefiting from a semiconductor expansion cycle and supply shortages (Myanmar and Indonesia). New energy metals and base metals face a stage of value reassessment after destocking. Bernstein and Deutsche Bank suggest that lithium, after clearing in 2025, will experience a supply-demand reversal with an average price for lithium carbonate expected to rise back to $14,000-18,000 per ton; nickel and cobalt have the potential for some upward movement due to tightened production policies. In terms of aluminum and zinc, Morgan Stanley expects aluminum prices to hit highs of $3250 in the second quarter of 2026, mainly driven by consumption growth brought about by the energy transition, offsetting potential tariff impacts; zinc prices, on the other hand, are expected to hover around cautious fluctuation levels around $2900 to $3000. Overall, 2026 will be a year dominated by the deep anchoring of pricing logic for industrial metals that emphasizes "resource scarcity" and "electrification demand." Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group Cocoa and Coffee Beans 2025 review: After hitting historical highs towards the end of 2024, prices underwent significant drawdowns in 2025 but remained at structurally high levels. Cocoa prices were played around $9000 in the New York cocoa futures market during the year, but as the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) warned of narrowing supply-demand deficits and enhanced production expectations in Western Africa (Cte d'Ivoire and Ghana), prices steadily fell throughout the year to around $6000 per ton. As one of the most popular commodities in 2024, with cocoa prices showing a significant decline, coffee beans presented an M-shaped trend of high-level turbulence this year. In the first half of the year, prices briefly stabilized due to the recovery in production from Vietnam and Indonesia, and then surged later in the year, reaching historical highs in February. Although prices fell towards the end of the year due to improved weather post the Brazilian heating season and forecasts of a surplus, the year ended with prices rebounding. Outlook for 2026: According to forecasts from Wall Street investment banks and the World Bank, the global cocoa and coffee markets will shift from extreme volatility to a new cycle of "supply repair and price decline." In the cocoa market, driven by improved weather in West Africa and increasing expectations of citrus production in Brazil, the ICCO predicts a shift from severe shortages to a surplus of about 150,000 tons, leading to prices falling to around $6000 per ton as a structural equilibrium point.