Bitcoin touches $90,000, after missing the year-end "Christmas rally", will it break through?

Bitcoin briefly returned to above $90,000 on Monday, indicating that the world's largest cryptocurrency may be on the verge of a breakthrough after missing out on the "Christmas rally" that drove the stock market to record highs. Data showed that Bitcoin rose by 3.1% to $90,200 at one point. However, by the time of writing, Bitcoin's gains narrowed to 0.3%, at $88,000. While the S&P 500 soared and reached a record high on the eve of Christmas, Bitcoin did not see much boost. The broader crypto market has yet to recover from the sell-off that began in October and lasted for several weeks, causing about $19 billion in leveraged positions to be liquidated. This deleveraging left the market "hollowed out" and traders have been reluctant to bet big on a rebound since then. Despite increasing institutional adoption and a series of policy wins during the term of crypto-friendly former U.S. President Trump, Bitcoin has still fallen by about 4% in 2025 to date. Now, signs of an early shift in market sentiment are beginning to show. Sebastian Bea, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset treasury company ReserveOne Inc., stated that Bitcoin's rise on Monday "seems to be driven to some extent by retail traders continuously increasing their positions in the futures market. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's funding rate - a key indicator measuring the sentiment in the crypto market - has reached its highest level since October 18th, indicating an increasing demand for long bets in the perpetual futures market. The number of open contracts in Bitcoin futures has also rebounded from recent lows. However, Sebastian Bea added that this level is still "far below the peak corresponding to Bitcoin's recent highs in October. Crypto asset management giant Grayscale stated in their "2026 Digital Assets Outlook" that 2026 will be the year of accelerated adoption by institutional investors in the crypto space, driven by rising macro value storage demand and significant regulatory improvements. The report predicts that Bitcoin is likely to reach new highs in 2026, with the United States potentially advancing bipartisan-supported market structure legislation in 2026 to promote the deep integration of stablecoins, RWAs, on-chain securities, and traditional finance. Asset tokenization may also reach a turning point, with a potential 1,000-fold growth by 2030. Grayscale noted that stablecoins, DeFi, on-chain revenue, and sustainable cash flow will become core points of interest for institutions, and industry structural differentiation will continue to intensify. However, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of U.S. crypto asset management firm Bitwise, recently stated in an interview that Bitcoin is likely to achieve steady but no longer "explosive" returns in the next 10 years, with volatility expected to be lower than in previous cycles. He believes that slow and steady institutional buying is supporting prices, resulting in this round of retracement having much smaller declines than seen in previous cycles. He remains optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2026, but points out that positive regulatory developments have been mostly priced in by the market, making it difficult to bring significant additional upward momentum. Fidelity's global macro research chief Jurrien Timmer previously stated that Bitcoin may have completed the upward phase of its four-year halving cycle, with the high of $125,000 in October likely representing the cycle top. He noted that historically, a "Bitcoin winter" typically lasts about a year, and 2026 may be a year of consolidation, with a key support zone around $65,000 to $75,000. However, he emphasized that he remains a long-term bull on Bitcoin.