The Short & Punchy: China’s 2025 Industrial Outlook: A High-Tech Shift
According to a report from state broadcaster CCTV on Friday, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology anticipates a 5.9% year-on-year increase in value-added industrial output for 2025. While this represents a marginal improvement over the 5.8% growth recorded in 2024, it indicates a slight cooling from the 6% expansion seen during the first 11 months of 2025. This projection follows recent National Bureau of Statistics data showing that industrial production—specifically for firms with annual revenues exceeding 20 million yuan—slowed to 4.8% in November, its lowest point since late 2024.
Amidst this slowing momentum, economists are urging Beijing to implement more robust strategies to stimulate internal demand and resolve the ongoing real estate downturn, reducing the nation’s heavy dependence on foreign trade. In response, Chinese leadership has committed to fiscal interventions for the coming year aimed at stabilizing the balance between supply and consumption. Central to this strategy is an intensified pursuit of technological independence, a move driven by growing competition with the U.S. over high-tech supremacy. During a national industry conference held this week, officials detailed plans to develop a "modern industrial system" prioritized by breakthroughs in semiconductors, aerospace, biomedicine, and the "low-altitude economy."
Furthering these ambitions, China recently established a national venture capital fund designed to funnel trillions of yuan into cutting-edge "hard tech" sectors like quantum computing and brain-computer interfaces. Regarding artificial intelligence, the ministry intends to bridge the digital divide by helping smaller businesses integrate AI while nurturing specialized startups in core industries. Additionally, the government pledged to intervene against "involution"—a term describing the destructive price wars and hyper-competition that have recently undermined corporate profitability across the industrial landscape.
