Demand for AI chips is strong, and South Korea's export growth in December is expected to reach a three-month high.

According to the survey, South Korea's exports in December are expected to achieve continuous growth for the seventh consecutive month, with the demand for AI chips continuing to play a leading role. Based on the median forecast of 11 economists, South Korea's export volume, as an indicator of global trade, is expected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year in December, marking the highest year-on-year growth in nearly three months, further increasing from the 8.4% growth in November. Standard Chartered Bank economists wrote in a report: "Semiconductor exports still serve as a stabilizing factor, benefiting from AI-related demand and stabilized traditional storage prices." Citigroup expects that driven by the global AI capital expenditure cycle, semiconductor exports will increase by 56% year-on-year for the whole year of 2026, already increasing by 23% this year. However, other sectors such as steel, machinery, and automobiles still show weakness. The main reasons are the U.S. and Canada's tariff increases and increased competition. Stephen Lee, an economist at Meritz Securities, pointed out: "Other products lack momentum, and a restart of the global manufacturing capital expenditure cycle is unlikely in the short term." In the first 20 days of this month, exports increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with semiconductor shipments surging by 41.8%, offsetting declines in automobiles, ships, and steel; shipments to China and the U.S. have increased, while shipments to the EU have decreased. As a typical trade-dependent economy, South Korea's economic growth rate in the third quarter jumped to its highest level in nearly four years, mainly due to the sustained strong growth in exports and a significant rebound in domestic consumption, forming a dual engine for recovery. Furthermore, the survey also shows that imports in December increased by 2.5% year-on-year, up from 1.1% the previous month; the median trade surplus for the month was $10 billion, higher than November's $9.74 billion, the largest since September 2017. South Korea is scheduled to release its December trade data on January 1st at 8:00 AM Beijing time (Thursday).