HK Stock Market Move | ND PAPER (02689) rose by more than 6%, the industry is showing a "shutdown + price hike" trend, and the improvement in inventory cycle is expected to strengthen the expectations of economic recovery.

ND PAPER(02689) rose by more than 6%, as of the time of publication, it has increased by 6.76% to 6 Hong Kong dollars, with a turnover of 294.532 million Hong Kong dollars. On the news front, according to China Pulp and Paper News, recently, packaging paper enterprises represented by Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng have carried out large-scale shutdowns for maintenance, actively reducing production capacity; Bohui, APP, Nine Dragons, and Asia Pulp and Paper have collectively announced price increases for white cardboard and cultural paper. This phenomenon of "shutdown + price increase" highlights significant differences in cost structure, supply and demand relationships, and market expectations for different types of paper. According to incomplete statistics, top enterprises such as ND PAPER, Shanying International Holdings, Lee & Man Paper, and Rongcheng Paper have fully initiated shutdown plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a high concentration of time from January to February (before and after the Spring Festival), focusing on products such as boxboard corrugated paper and kraft paper for packaging made from waste paper. CICC pointed out that the proactive destocking in the paper industry, which began in March 2022, has lasted for 19 months, approaching the longest historical cycle. It is expected to see a turning point in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the improvement in inventory cycle will further strengthen the expectation of the recovery of industry prosperity. Looking ahead to 2026, consumer demand is still in the stage of mild recovery, with various changes in supply of different types of paper: the supply and demand of pulp paper are still loose, with pulp prices becoming a key driving force for inventory rebuild and destocking. Integrated leaders in the pulp and paper industry are expected to continue to achieve excess profits; the capacity of boxboard corrugated paper has been basically completed, and it is expected to be the first to emerge from this round of supply and demand imbalance cycle, ushering in capacity utilization rate recovery, and the performance recovery market with ton paper price rising compared to the same period last year.