Tracking Hong Kong stocks concept | Lithium carbonate prices surged, promoting the opportunity for sodium-ion batteries (with concept stocks attached)

On December 26th, the price of lithium continued to rise and reached a milestone breakthrough. The main contract of lithium carbonate on the Guangqi Exchange strong exceeded the 13,000 yuan/ton mark, reaching an intra-day price of 13,080 yuan/ton, a new high since November 2023. By the end of the day, the latest price was 13,050 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 68.72% for the year. The rise in lithium prices will bring positive effects on the profitability recovery of lithium carbonate production enterprises. With the continuous development of the global new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, the demand for lithium carbonate will continue to grow. A research report released by J.P. Morgan on December 17th showed that analysts including Lyndon Fagan have significantly raised the target price for lithium carbonate in the fourth quarter of 2026 to $18,000/ton, far above the current spot price of about $13,500/ton. At the same time, the target price for spodumene, as the raw material for lithium ore, has also been raised to $2,000/ton, almost double the current spot price of about $1,100/ton. This dramatic change directly impacted the capital market. J.P. Morgan announced that the ratings of all pure lithium mining stocks it covers were upgraded to "Overweight" and significantly raised the target prices of these companies, believing that these stocks have significant upside potential in the strong commodity price environment. The sharp rise in lithium prices has prompted an opportunity for sodium-ion batteries. In a report released by CMSC, in recent years, the cost of sodium-ion batteries has rapidly decreased, and the energy density has also significantly increased, with its application scenarios and scale expanding continuously. From the perspective of end-use scenarios, based on considerations of low-temperature performance and cost, sodium-ion batteries are beginning to be used in A0/A00 vehicle models and expanding to hybrid models. In the two-wheeler market, sodium batteries have safety and cost advantages over lithium batteries, and by 2024, several companies are expected to release sodium-based two-wheeler vehicles, gradually replacing some lead-acid batteries. In the energy storage sector, sodium batteries are transitioning from household storage to large-scale applications. In various markets such as power and energy storage, sodium-ion batteries are expected to gradually move towards large-scale applications. On December 28th, Contemporary Amperex Technology Supplier Conference was held in Ningde. By 2026, Contemporary Amperex Technology will extensively apply sodium batteries in fields such as battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage, potentially forming a new trend of "sodium-lithium dual-star shining". Last week, Chinese institutions had a telephone conference with Shanghai Pret Composites, where the company stated that its sodium-ion battery orders had increased tenfold year-on-year, reaching 10GWh. Ningde's sodium-ion battery shipments have reached 2GWh in 25 years, and are expected to at least triple in 26 years. Based on calculations, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is now very close to that of lithium-ion batteries at 120,000. However, the cycle life of sodium-ion batteries is 1.5 times that of lithium-ion batteries, and considering the single-use storage cost, it may actually be lower. Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the sodium-ion battery industry chain include Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750), CNGR (02579), and BYD COMPANY (01211).