Tracking Hong Kong stock concepts | Ministry of Finance will continue to boost consumption vigorously next year, institutions are optimistic about the development opportunities of related industries (including concept stocks)

From December 27th to 28th, the National Financial Work Conference was held in Beijing. Finance Minister Liao Feng'an stated that next year, the finance sector will vigorously boost consumption. They will further implement special actions to boost consumption, continue to allocate funds to support the exchange of old products for new ones, and adjust and optimize the subsidy range and standards. Currently, consumption has become an important engine for economic growth in China, with its driving effect becoming more prominent. By 2025, through a more proactive combination of fiscal policies, maintaining the strength of fiscal expenditures, providing greater support for "two major" projects, and expanding the implementation of "two new" policies, both the supply and demand ends will stimulate consumption potential. Liu Feng, Chief Economist of the International Green Finance Research Institute at the Central University of Finance and Economics, stated that China's economy has shifted from the traditional model driven by factors and investments to a high-quality development stage driven by domestic demand and innovation. China has the world's largest middle-income group, a complete industrial system, and a constantly upgrading consumption structure, with enormous domestic demand potential. Data shows that in the first 11 months, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, with growth not only faster than the same period last year but also faster than the previous year as a whole. As a key focus of macroeconomic policy implementation this year to expand domestic demand, boosting consumption is crucial. On one hand, funds from ultra-long-term special government bonds for the implementation of the "two new" policies have significantly increased. 300 billion yuan will be used to support the exchange of old products for new ones, an increase of 150 billion yuan from the previous year; 200 billion yuan will be used to support equipment upgrades, an increase of 50 billion yuan from the previous year. On the other hand, in March, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," proposing to "use ultra-long-term special government bond funds effectively to support local efforts to expand the implementation of the exchange of old products for new ones, promote the greenization and smartization of major durable consumer goods such as cars, home appliances, and home furnishing." According to the latest data, in the first 11 months of this year, the exchange of old products for new ones drove sales of related goods to surpass 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. Retail sales of home appliances and audiovisual equipment, cultural and office supplies, and communication equipment among units above the designated limit increased by 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9%, respectively, in the first 11 months. Liu Jiangyi, Vice Chairman of the China Light Industry Federation, stated at the conference that from January to November this year, more than 1.28 billion units of household appliances were exchanged for new ones, driving sales of related goods to over 2.5 trillion yuan. The evaluation of smart furniture and other standards has promoted the intelligent upgrade of the industry, leading enterprises have accelerated the launch of high-end smart furniture products with a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan, becoming new growth points for the upgrading of furniture consumption. In addition, in terms of consumption scenarios, the consumption structure continues to upgrade, showing a parallel feature of both expanding total volume and upgrading structure. Simple commodity transactions can no longer meet the complex demands of consumers, and "immersive, leisurely, and personalized" consumption is becoming the new trend. According to the latest report on global AI consumer spending released by Counterpoint Research, consumer spending in the generative AI field is accelerating the reshaping of the global technology industry landscape. Global consumer spending on generative AI is expected to increase from $225 billion in 2023 to $699 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21%. The report points out that both AI software for consumers and the hardware devices needed to run it will experience rapid growth in the coming years. In terms of specific fields, AI conversation platforms will experience the fastest growth, with personal assistant AI and content generation tools also expected to see significant expansion. By 2030, the monthly active users (MAUs) of global AI conversation platforms are expected to exceed 5 billion. Huatai Securities pointed out that with the continued deepening of the special action to boost consumption and the increase in high-quality supply, domestic consumption is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. In the consumption sector, attention should be paid to structural opportunities such as the rise of domestic products, AI+ consumption, emotional consumption, and undervalued high dividend blue-chip stocks. Wanlian Securities stated that Chinese consumption has entered a new stage of "consumption stratification," characterized by mass products pursuing value for money and a willingness to pay a premium for innovative products and services that provide emotional value. In this context, the trendy market is expanding rapidly, industry concentration is expected to increase; the gold and jewelry industry is shifting from a channel-driven model to a product and design-driven focus; and domestic cosmetics brands are continuing to rise with advantages in research and development and marketing. Related industries are facing development opportunities, and leading companies are expected to benefit. Relevant concept stocks: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (01880): One of the core businesses of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation is to provide tax-free shopping services for inbound tourists, especially in the duty-free shops in major port cities (such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou). If policies are introduced to facilitate visas, tax refunds, or relax the shopping qualifications for duty-free shops, this will bring incremental customer groups and sales growth. Xiaomi (01810): On December 17th, the Xiaomi People Car Family Ecology Partner Conference was successfully held, and the MiMo team leader Luo Fuli delivered the first speech, releasing the MiMo-V2-Flash model. This model optimizes inference costs and speeds and accelerates the landing of AI in the physical world based on the closed-loop ecosystem of people, cars, and homes, covering scenes such as mobile phones, IoT, and cars. The MiMo model provides an entry point for the AI ecosystem, with the business loop expected to run smoothly. Midea Group Co., Ltd (00300): Citigroup released a research report stating that based on Midea Group Co., Ltd's (00300) strong growth performance in the first three quarters of 2025, it is expected that Midea's full-year financial targets for 2025 can be achieved, with a year-on-year sales increase of about 10% and a corresponding increase in net profit margin. Midea remains one of the top recommended stocks in China's consumer sector. BYD COMPANY (01211): In November, Goldman Sachs released a research report predicting that the annual compound growth rate of BYD COMPANY's (01211,002594.SZ) profits from 2025 to 2028 would reach 30%, with overseas profit contribution increasing from 21% in 2024 to 60% in 2028; they maintain a "buy" rating with an H-share target price of HK$141 and an A-share target price of RMB 144. POP MART (09992): In November, Huachuang Securities released a research report maintaining a "strong recommendation" for POP MART (09992). Based on the performance in the third quarter of 2025, they raised the company's profit forecast, expecting the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 123.2/169.3/210.9 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding target price of HK$345.39. In the third quarter of 2025, overall revenue increased by 245-250%, with China (including Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) revenue up 185-190% and overseas revenue up 365-370%. The high growth performance confirms the long-term potential of globalization expansion and IP ecological synergy. The company's rich IP matrix and diversified product matrix are expected to continue meeting the needs of the trendy market, with confidence in the company's full industry chain operation capability.