Ed Yardeni's 2026 Outlook: The US will not decline, the S&P will reach 7700, US Treasury bond yields will exceed 4%, and gold prices will reach $6000.

Recently, Ed Yardeni shared his outlook for the stock, bond, and gold markets in 2026, and analyzed the key driving factors that may affect these asset classes in the coming year. Yardeni believes that we are currently in the "Roaring 2020s." Based on the projected earnings per share (EPS) reaching $350 in 2027, the S&P 500 index is expected to surge to 7700 points by the end of 2026, and ultimately challenge the 10,000-point mark by the end of the decade. At the same time, the long-term target for gold is also set at $10,000, while other precious metals such as silver driven by industrial demand are also expected to strengthen. Yardeni stated that the field of AI has evolved from a monopoly to an "arms race," intensifying competition and narrowing the moat of tech giants. Market dynamics are undergoing a profound change: the focus of investment is shifting from the producers of AI technology (the Big Seven) to the users of AI technology, who have enormous potential to increase profit margins through AI. Key points summarized below: - It is believed that in 2026, market gains will spread from the "Big Seven" to the impressive "493 companies." - If AI is truly effective, the real beneficiaries may not be the technology producers, but rather the users who can improve productivity and increase profit margins through technology. - The resilience of the economy over the past four years is still acknowledged, framing it as the "Roaring 2020s." - The improvement in productivity is expected to lower unit labor cost inflation, making a 2% inflation rate achievable. This would mean that the Federal Reserve would not raise interest rates, and there would be no more talk of higher rates. - The bond market may continue to stabilize above 4%. - By the end of 2026, the market is expected to anticipate earnings per share reaching $350 in 2027. Multiplying $350 by a 22x price-to-earnings ratio, the target for the S&P 500 index is 7700 points. The expectation is for the index to reach 10,000 points by the end of the decade. - If the S&P 500 index can achieve this, it is believed that gold could also reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade. - Gold is seen as a good way to diversify or balance a portfolio. When the S&P 500 index soars, gold performs averagely, but when the S&P 500 index stagnates, gold performs well. - There is a hesitation about whether the target for gold should be raised to $6000, but it might happen. - Silver is widely used in electronics, so logically, silver makes more sense than gold. However, it is believed that the overall precious metals will continue to perform well. The above information is provided based on Yardeni's podcast content. This article was originally published by "Wall Street View," written by Zhang Yaqi; Edited by Huang Xiaodong.