Has the market structure of the HBM changed? Nvidia's Rubin expects shipments to increase, and storage giants are competing in a game of "chasing each other".

As the price of HBM3E continues to rise, storage market leaders have launched a new round of market share battle around HBM4. According to TheElec, SK Hynix has advanced its mass production plan at its M15X factory in Cheongju by four months and will begin mass production of 1b DRAM wafers for HBM4 in February next year. The factory is initially planned to have a capacity of about 10,000 wafers, which is expected to increase to tens of thousands by the end of next year. An insider disclosed, "Equipment investment and installation work is underway, and plans have been adjusted to achieve faster and larger-scale mass production." It is worth mentioning that M15X is also known as the "HBM4 exclusive factory," and industry insiders believe that this accelerated production indicates SK Hynix's confidence in the supply of HBM4. So far, SK Hynix has completed the early production preparations at the M15X factory, including the certification of the 1b HBM4 process. The improved circuit HBM4 wafers will be completed by the end of this month, with final samples of the next-generation 12-layer HBM4 memory to be delivered to Nvidia in early January next year. At the same time, Nvidia's Vera Rubin 200 platform with HBM4 is expected to ship more clearly. Market forecasts show that shipments of Nvidia's GB300 AI server cabinet are expected to reach 55,000 units next year, an increase of 129% year-on-year. The Vera Rubin 200 platform is expected to start shipping in the fourth quarter of next year, with some vendor orders visible as far as 2027. Three giants compete for HBM4 market share As of today, SK Hynix still occupies a leading position in the global HBM market. According to Counterpoint Research, in the third quarter of this year, SK Hynix's global HBM revenue market share reached 57%, a slight decline but still better than the same period last year. In comparison, Samsung and Micron's market shares were 22% and 21%, respectively. However, this situation may change in the future. According to a report from the Korean Daily Economic News, Nvidia visited Samsung and reported on the testing progress of Samsung's HBM4 system-level packaging (SiP). The meeting revealed that Samsung's products outperformed all memory manufacturers in terms of operating speed and power efficiency, two core indicators. Based on its excellent performance, Nvidia has given the green light for Samsung's HBM4 supply. It is reported that Nvidia's demand for Samsung's HBM4 next year greatly exceeds its internal forecast. This is expected to significantly improve Samsung's performance. A Samsung insider said, "Unlike the last HBM3E, we are in a leading position in the development of HBM4." According to reports, considering the speed and production capacity of its Pyeongtaek P4 production line, Samsung will officially sign a supply contract in the first quarter of next year. It is expected to start formal supply from the second quarter. In addition, Micron is also involved in the competition for HBM4. Its latest financial report shows that its HBM4 will be mass-produced as planned in the second quarter of 2026 and achieve high yield production ramp-up. HBM4 adopts advanced CMOS and advanced metallization processes on base logic chips and DRAM core chips, all of which are independently designed and manufactured by Micron. Huatai pointed out that in 2026, the capital expenditures of the world's three major storage companies may focus on HBM/DRAM. According to TrendForce, the CAGR of the DRAM market in 2026 may reach 26%. The storage supercycle is expected to become an important theme in the semiconductor industry in 2026, but shows structural differentiation characteristics, with the market demand for Batch ALD equipment, testing equipment, and packaging processing equipment expected to significantly increase. This article is reproduced from "CaiLianPress," GMTEight editor: Wang Qiujia.