The Bank of China International: New technologies drive the upgrading of new energy generation, maintaining an industry rating of "outperform the market"

The China International Bank released a research report stating that in terms of wind power, the demand for offshore wind power in China and Europe will bring about an increase in pile foundation demand, and the "anti-overturning" of wind turbines will drive profit recovery. In terms of photovoltaics, the policy intensity of "anti-overturning" and the expansion pace of new technologies such as perovskite will continue in 2026. Overall, China's release of Document 136 guides new energy power plants to carry out market-oriented trading of electricity prices, leading to a new stage of new energy development. In general, although the short-term installation demand for new energy is not good on a global scale, there are structural opportunities, maintaining an industry rating stronger than the broader market. Key views from China International Bank are as follows: Short-term fluctuations in new energy installation demand, with broad long-term potential Document 136 guides new energy projects to conduct marketized trading after power generation, affecting the revenue of new energy power plants and causing short-term fluctuations in installation demand. However, due to China's objective conditions of "rich coal, poor oil, and scarce gas" resources, the core driving force for developing new energy lies in ensuring energy security. From a long-term perspective, there is still vast potential for new energy installation demand in China. According to calculations, the annual average installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China is expected to exceed 400GW from 2025 to 2035. The growth in offshore wind power demand injects growth momentum into the industry In 2026, wind power installations in China may slightly decline, but offshore wind power installations show a growing trend. From a policy perspective, on one hand, various coastal provinces have a relatively positive attitude towards offshore wind power development; on the other hand, the approval bottlenecks for offshore wind power projects are gradually being cleared, and the approval and start of offshore wind power projects during the "fifteenth five-year plan" are expected to normalize. From an economic perspective, offshore wind power projects are relatively unaffected by Document 136 and have good economic viability. On the overseas front, the demand for offshore wind power in Europe is positively catalyzed by the use of AI electricity, and it is expected that the installed capacity of wind power in Europe in 2026 will achieve an eye-catching growth rate of about 50%, with offshore wind demand growing by over 100%. In general, there is growth in offshore wind demand globally, with pile foundation segment offering incremental market opportunities. Grasping the pace of the "anti-overturning" policy is the main investment theme for photovoltaics Since 2024, the sector-wide bull market in photovoltaics has been driven by policies. In 2024, the implementation of the "anti-overturning" policy was mainly led by industry associations, and the frequency of voices from the central and ministerial levels significantly increased in 2025. It is conservatively estimated that there is a risk of negative growth in the installed capacity of photovoltaics in China and globally in 2026, and the supply-demand situation of photovoltaics in 2026 is not optimistic as photovoltaic capacity has not shown a large-scale exit in 2025. The bank believes that "anti-overturning" will continue to be the main theme in photovoltaics in 2026, with investment directions including potential capacity exits at various links in the photovoltaic crystalline silicon industry chain under the policy/market-oriented background, as well as the quality improvement and efficiency enhancement of battery components such as TOPCon/BC/perovskite, promoting the exit of inefficient capacity. Perovskite new technology is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of photovoltaic manufacturing The efficiency of photovoltaic crystalline silicon cells has essentially reached the theoretical efficiency limit of 29.4%, and perovskite is an optional direction for further increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic cell components. Perovskite components have strong power generation capabilities in weak light conditions, with large-sized components with a comprehensive efficiency exceeding 20% already available, and their actual power generation capabilities can match those of crystalline silicon components. The issue of their lifespan has also been partially resolved. Leading manufacturers' mass production plans for perovskite cell components in 2026 are expected to positively catalyze the industry, and the entry of leading companies from other industries into the perovskite race is expected to reshape the photovoltaic market landscape. Investment recommendations In terms of wind power, the "anti-overturning" policy is driving wind turbine prices to stabilize and rise, main engine manufacturers are expected to improve profitability, deep-sea offshore wind power projects in China are starting to become economically viable and are expected to become an important part of wind power installations, and there is increasing demand for offshore wind power in Europe and emerging markets. It is recommended to prioritize the wind turbine segment with the potential for profit recovery and the pile foundation segment with fast progress in European offshore projects. In terms of photovoltaics, the "anti-overturning" policy remains the main theme for the development of the photovoltaic industry chain, focusing on the price elasticity brought about by the exit of battery and component capacity, as well as the industrialization potential of new technologies such as perovskite. It is recommended to prioritize growth-oriented new technology directions and the main industry chain benefiting from the "anti-overturning" of photovoltaics. Main risks facing the rating Unexpected price competition; fluctuations in raw material prices; risks of international trade frictions; risks of technological iteration; large-scale cost reduction falling short of expectations; policy falling short of expectations; risks of consumption lag; slowdown in investment growth.