Gold Rally Has Further To Run, JPMorgan Bullish: Prices Could Reach USD 5,055 By Year‑End 2026

On Monday, amid escalating geopolitical tensions that intensified safe‑haven demand, spot gold climbed above USD 4,400 per ounce for the first time, marking an almost 70% gain year‑to‑date and positioning the metal for its largest annual advance since 1979. Despite the rapid appreciation, analysts at JPMorgan see additional upside of more than 10% over the next year.

JPMorgan attributes the 2025 surge—during which gold surpassed USD 4,000—to a combination of tariff uncertainty and robust purchases by exchange‑traded funds and central banks. The bank further notes that emerging sources of demand, including Chinese insurance companies and participants from the cryptocurrency community, could help propel prices toward USD 5,055 by the end of 2026.

Following a year of extraordinary demand and unprecedented price moves, JPMorgan’s outlook for 2026 indicates that the bull market in gold is likely to persist because the principal drivers remain intact. Natasha Kaneva, Global Head of Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan, emphasized in the report that while the rally will not proceed in a straight line, the underlying trend supporting higher prices has not run its course.

The report argues that the long‑term shift of official reserves and investor allocations into gold will continue, and JPMorgan projects that such demand could lift prices toward USD 5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026. A weaker U.S. dollar, lower U.S. interest rates and ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty have all contributed to the current rally, with gold serving both as a hedge against currency depreciation and as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries and money‑market instruments.

JPMorgan’s price scenario rests on sustained investor appetite and elevated central‑bank purchases. The bank forecasts average quarterly demand from these two core buyer groups of about 585 tonnes in 2026, comprising roughly 190 tonnes from central banks and about 330 tonnes in bars and coins, in addition to ETF and futures demand. The analysis indicates that quarterly demand above 350 tonnes is sufficient to exert upward pressure on prices, and that each additional 100 tonnes above that threshold could correspond to an approximate 2% quarter‑on‑quarter price increase.

Central banks are expected to remain a principal support for the market next year. JPMorgan projects central‑bank purchases of 755 tonnes in 2026, a level below the recent three‑year peaks above 1,000 tonnes but materially higher than the pre‑2022 average of roughly 400–500 tonnes. The bank highlights reserve‑holding countries with gold allocations below 10% as potential sources of incremental demand; if such central banks raised their gold share to 10%, JPMorgan estimates incremental allocations of about USD 335 billion (approximately 2,600 tonnes) at USD 4,000 per ounce, or about USD 194 billion (roughly 1,200 tonnes) at USD 5,000 per ounce.

Investor demand is also expected to expand beyond 2025’s base. JPMorgan forecasts net new ETF holdings of around 250 tonnes in 2026 and anticipates annual bar and coin demand to again exceed 1,200 tonnes. As of the end of September 2025, holdings of gold via ETFs, physical bullion and COMEX futures represented about 2.8% of global assets under management in equities, bonds (excluding central‑bank reserves) and alternatives; JPMorgan’s analysts believe this share could rise to between 4% and 5% over the coming years.

The bank further identifies Chinese insurers and the crypto sector as potential new demand cohorts. In February, the National Financial Regulatory Administration authorized pilot programs allowing insurance funds to invest in gold, naming ten insurers to participate. Although several insurers reported initial transactions in March, subsequent activity appeared to slow in the months that followed.

On balance, JPMorgan’s baseline projects an average gold price of USD 5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, with a further rise to USD 5,400 per ounce by the end of 2027.