Sinolink: First time covering KEYMED BIO-B (02162) with a "buy" rating, target price of HK$83.29.

Sinolink released a research report stating that KEYMED BIO-B (02162) has a diverse pipeline, with its core product Sim-Pick monoclonal antibody already approved for market launch. The CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody) is currently expanding into multiple Phase II clinical trials, and the authorized CMG901 by AZ is expected to submit an NDA to the US in 2026. The early research layout covers multiple technological platforms, and the pipeline is expected to gradually advance with sufficient back-up resources. The initial coverage gives a "buy" rating with a target price of HK$83.29. Main points from Sinolink report: Deeply differentiates itself in the field of chronic diseases and oncology The core product Sim-Pick monoclonal antibody is the first domestic IL-4R monoclonal antibody, with a clear first-mover advantage. It is expected to experience rapid growth after being included in medical insurance execution in 2026. IL-4R monoclonal antibodies can target various type II inflammatory diseases such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP). Currently, there are only two IL-4R monoclonal antibodies approved globally, with Sanofi's Dupilumab showing rapid growth and expanding into new indications since its launch in 2017, generating global sales exceeding $14 billion in 2024. Sim-Pick monoclonal antibody, as the second globally approved and first domestic IL-4R monoclonal antibody, has a clear first-mover advantage. Its efficacy is better than Dupilumab, and it has already been approved for three indications (AD, CRSwNP, allergic rhinitis SAR, the latter two being exclusive indications). With its inclusion in the national medical insurance catalog starting from December 2025, it is expected to experience rapid growth after implementation in 2026. Since its launch in September 2024, sales in 2024 and the first half of 2025 were 36 million and 169 million respectively. Sales are expected to reach 331 million, 905 million, and 1.627 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 respectively. CM512 (TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody) has entered Phase II clinical trials, ranking second globally in terms of progress with significant differentiation advantages. It has a broad market layout in the respiratory field with enormous potential. TSLP and IL-13 play important roles in various type II inflammatory diseases such as asthma and COPD. Sanofi's TSLP/IL-13 monoclonal antibody demonstrated excellent efficacy and safety in Phase I asthma trials. The company's CM512, also a TSLP/IL-13 dual antibody, has a good competitive landscape, showing strong efficacy and safety data in Phase I AD trials. Phase II trials for asthma, COPD, CRSwNP, etc., are currently ongoing, with expected approval for market launch in 2029 to iterate existing therapies and lay out a broad respiratory market with enormous potential. CMG901 (Claudin 18.2 ADC) has been authorized by AZ and has the fastest global progress. It is expected to complete Phase III clinical trials for 2L gastric cancer and submit an application for market approval in 2026. CMG901 is the second globally ranked and fastest overseas developed Claudin 18.2 ADC. It was previously authorized by AZ, with a transaction consideration including an upfront payment of $63 million, potential milestone payments of up to $1.125 billion, and high single-digit tiered royalties on net sales. Phase III trials for 2L gastric cancer are expected to be completed in 2026 with a NDA submission, and it is anticipated to be launched in 2027. The company is expected to receive certain milestone income and low single-digit net sales share post-launch in 2026-2027. Profit forecast, valuation, and rating The bank predicts that the company will achieve operating income of 661 million, 1.255 billion, and 2.064 billion yuan in 2025/2026/2027, with year-on-year growth of +54%/+90%/+65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -513 million, -297 million, and 201 million yuan, corresponding to an EPS of -1.72, -0.99, and 0.67 yuan. Based on the DCF valuation method, a target price of HK$83.29 is given, with a "buy" rating for the initial coverage. Risk factors: Sales may be lower than expected, and research and development progress may not meet expectations.