Guoyuan International: Implement anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products originating from the EU. You are advised to pay attention to YOURAN DAIRY (09858).

Guoyuan International released a research report stating that as the demand for dairy products in China gradually stabilizes, the anti-subsidy measures will release the increased demand for deep processing of domestic raw milk, combined with the continuous promotion of the upstream pastoral industry, the balance of supply and demand for raw milk is expected to accelerate, and it is recommended to pay attention to YOURAN DAIRY (09858). Guoyuan International's main points are as follows: Event On December 22, the Ministry of Commerce of China issued a preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the European Union, deciding to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures in the form of temporary anti-subsidy tax deposits on imported dairy products from the European Union from December 23, 2025. The preliminary ruling on the anti-subsidy investigation mainly targets various types of cheeses and skimmed milk cream products. This anti-subsidy investigation began in July 2024. The China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Industry Association representing the domestic dairy industry, submitted an anti-subsidy investigation application to the Ministry of Commerce, notifying that imported dairy products from the European Union were subsidized, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry in China. The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-subsidy investigation on imported dairy products from the European Union in August 2024. After more than a year of careful investigation, preliminary evidence showed that the European Union provided a large amount of subsidies to the dairy industry and other agricultural sectors through subsidy programs such as the Common Agricultural Policy, causing substantial harm to the domestic industry in China, and the causal relationship between the two was established. Therefore, the Ministry of Commerce decided to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures on imported dairy products from the European Union from December 23, 2025, covering products such as fresh cheese, processed cheese, and skimmed milk cream, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7%. The anti-subsidy measures will increase import prices and are expected to promote the balance of supply and demand for raw milk. According to the China Dairy Industry Association, from January to October 2025, China imported a total of 2.1824 million tons of various dairy products, including 156,000 tons of cheese, 118,100 tons of butter, and 214,500 tons of skimmed milk cream. The European Union accounted for 15%, 12%, and 29% of China's imports of cheese, butter, and skimmed milk cream, respectively, second only to New Zealand. It is estimated that the import volume of related dairy products subject to anti-subsidies will account for about 5% of China's total imports. Since 2023, the prices of dairy products at home and abroad have shown divergent trends, with domestic raw milk supply exceeding demand, leading to continued price declines. The price advantage of imported dairy products has gradually diminished. The implementation of the anti-subsidy measures will further weaken the price advantage of imported dairy products, reduce overseas supply, and promote the return of China's raw milk industry to supply and demand balance.