Orient: Accelerated export of excavators in November, certainty of healthy development in the industry is increasing.

Orient released a research report stating that the export sales volume of excavators in November accelerated, reflecting an increase in economic activity. From the perspective of export countries, the growth in export sales volume is mainly structural, reflecting the strengthening competitiveness of China's construction machinery industry, which is beneficial for increasing the certainty of future exports. In addition, the bank also observed that the export of used machinery had a significant impact, and the bank expects that the export of used machinery will help increase the utilization rate of domestic stock, leading to long-term healthy growth in the industry. The bank believes that market expectations for the improvement of the industry's health will increase, leading to a decrease in risk assessment and benefiting investment opportunities for mid-cap and blue-chip companies. Some related targets include Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH, not rated), Guangxi Liugong Machinery (000528.SZ, not rated), ZOOMLION (000157.SZ, Buy), and XCMG Construction Machinery (000425.SZ, not rated). Orient's main points are as follows: Customs statistics show an acceleration in excavator exports, indicating an increase in economic activity According to the General Administration of Customs statistics, in November 2025, China exported a total of 27,752 tracked excavators, amounting to $872 million, with a year-on-year increase of 52.36% and 26.67%. The export volume in November increased by over 50%, higher than the cumulative increase in the first 11 months of 35%, reflecting an accelerated export and an increase in economic activity. Demand from export countries fluctuates, but overall growth resilience, export growth certainty increases The bank observed fluctuations in the countries to which China exported excavators in November, with export growth rates exceeding 100% to Brazil, Italy, and Vietnam, while exports to the United States, Indonesia, Russia, and Canada declined to varying degrees compared to October. Although the demand states of various countries are inconsistent, the export growth of China is still relatively fast. The bank believes that this is mainly because China's competitiveness in construction machinery overseas is strengthening, and the bank expects an increase in the certainty of future excavator export growth. Significant pull from used machinery exports, domestic holding amount decline, conducive to long-term healthy industry growth The bank found that the number of excavators exported by the General Administration of Customs was higher than that of the industry association. In November, the customs statistics showed 27,800 units exported, while the association's statistics showed 10,200 units. From January to November, customs statistics showed 274,000 units exported, while the association's statistics showed 104,000 units exported. The bank believes that the main reason is the export of used machinery domestically. With a large number of domestic used machinery exports, the bank expects the domestic excavator holding amount to decline, which will lead to a stable or increasing utilization rate, beneficial for the long-term healthy growth of the industry. Risk alert Macroeconomic fluctuations leading to investment falling short of expectations, high overseas interest rates dragging down demand, intensification of overseas trade frictions, and rising raw material prices dragging down corporate profits.