Zhongjin: AIDC's distribution and storage contribution increases, and the integrated project of wind-powered hydrogen storage and alcohol may see a surge.

China Jin released a research report stating that the global energy storage market is looking forward to 2026, with high growth expected in the demands of the markets in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and an increase in the contribution of AIDC paired storage. Currently, there is high growth in AIDC demand in the United States. With limited electricity capacity and difficulties in grid connection, more AIDC can enhance flexibility and interconnection through paired storage to accelerate grid connection speeds. It can also achieve partial self-supply through light storage. The bank estimates that by 2030, the demand for AIDC paired storage in the United States may reach 100-200GWh. In terms of green ethanol, the shipping industry provides a green premium for green ethanol, driving demand for green ethanol in the shipping industry. Many domestic wind and solar hydrogen ethanol projects are expected to accelerate construction, driving some energy storage demand. High growth in demand in Europe, rapid uptake in the Asian, African, and Latin American markets. After the second half of 2025, provinces in China successively introduced capacity-based electricity pricing policies. Independent energy storage is economically excellent under the profit model of "peak-valley arbitrage + capacity pricing + ancillary services," with high demand. The bank predicts that short-term prosperity is likely to continue. In Europe, energy shortages and a lack of flexible grid resources have led to increased demand for energy storage, with development gradually shifting from household storage to large-scale commercial and industrial storage. Australia's electricity market is mature and large-scale storage is economically excellent, with projects accelerating landing. Household storage strengthens economics through high subsidies, ensuring medium to long-term demand. The aging infrastructure of the US power grid continues to drive the growth of large-scale storage demand. However, policy restrictions may accelerate the localization of lithium battery production capacity. The Asian, African, and Latin American markets benefit from the reduction in the cost of light storage, driving high growth in demand for large-scale storage due to the demands for new energy consumption and grid stability, as well as guarantees for supply stability and reduction in electricity tariffs, which also promote the demand for distributed light storage. Strong demand catalyzes a shortage of battery cells, prompting companies to go abroad to build competitive barriers. With strong demand for energy storage, there has been a continuous tight supply of energy storage battery cells since the second half of 2025. Top companies are fully booked in orders until the first quarter of 2026. The bank predicts that with the release of large battery cell capacity by top companies, the tight supply is expected to gradually ease after the second quarter of 2026. At the same time, with the trend of localization driven by policies in Europe and the United States, top companies are further building competitive barriers through overseas factories and technology licensing, benefiting from high growth in overseas markets. Against the background of high growth in global energy storage demand, the bank recommends focusing on investment opportunities brought by high growth in non-US overseas markets, including opportunities in front and back-end energy storage. Risk warning: The global renewable energy transformation is slower than expected, policy fluctuations affect end demand, geopolitical risks overseas intensify, and intensified competition in the industry chain leads to a decline in profit margins.