Guotai Haitong: The technology sector continues to be vibrant, serving the rising consumer demand.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that last week, the medium-term economic outlook continued to differentiate, with global AI infrastructure continuing to drive demand growth in the electronic industry chain, causing technology hardware prices to continue to rise. Emerging technologies are driving an increase in metal demand, and loose monetary policies are heating up, leading to a rise in non-ferrous metal prices. On the domestic demand side, service consumption is showing marginal improvement, while durable goods in real estate continue to face pressure. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed the "in-depth implementation of the consumer revitalization special action" and looking ahead to 2026, there may be unexpected policy space for consumer supply and demand. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: The prosperous trend of technology and non-ferrous metals continues, with an increase in service consumption demand. Last week (12.15-12.21), the performance of the medium-term economic outlook was differentiated, with attention drawn to: 1) The ongoing global AI infrastructure driving demand growth in the electronic industry chain, with significant price increases in high-end storage, and strong prosperity in the storage track continuing; expectations for loose liquidity are heating up, coupled with an increase in demand for metal materials driven by emerging technologies, resulting in a significant rise in international metal prices. 2) The marginal improvement in service consumption, with Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index and Hainan tourism price index rising month-on-month; milk powder prices continue to increase, and Moutai's wholesale price continues to rise slightly. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed the "in-depth implementation of the consumer revitalization special action" and looking ahead to 2026, there may be unexpected policy space for consumer supply and demand. 3) Traditional domestic demand is weak, with low demand in real estate construction and increased pressure on durable goods sales. Downstream consumption: Tourism prosperity increases, with increased pressure on durable goods sales. 1) Service consumption: Shanghai Disneyland's crowd index increased by 11.2% on a monthly basis and 56.2% year-on-year; from 12.08 to 12.14, Hainan's tourism price index increased by 0.9% on a monthly basis, indicating an improvement in tourism prosperity. 2) Real estate: The year-on-year growth rate of the sales area of residential properties in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 21.5%, with the sales area of residential properties in first-tier/second-tier/third-tier cities decreasing by 36.3%/23.2%/+7.3% year-on-year, and the sales area of second-hand houses in the top 10 key cities decreasing by 26.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline in real estate sales. 3) Durable goods: From 12.08 to 12.14, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 17% year-on-year; in November, domestic exports of household air conditioners decreased by 39.8%/25.6% year-on-year, leading to increased pressure on durable goods sales. Technology & Manufacturing: Memory prices remain high, with stable manufacturing industry operations. 1) Electronics: Driven by AI infrastructure investments, the technological hardware outlook remains strong. As of the week of 12.22, the spot price of DDR4/DDR5 DRAM memory was $56.9/$26.7, an increase of 12.1%/1.8% month-on-month. Prices of high-performance memory have risen significantly. In November, Taiwan's electronic industry revenue continued to grow, with storage companies leading the way in growth. 2) Infrastructure real estate: Construction demand remains at a low ebb, and steel building material prices continue to fluctuate at low levels. 3) Manufacturing industry: Manufacturing operation rates and enterprise recruitment intentions remain stable. Upstream resources: Coal prices have significantly declined, while international metal prices have significantly increased. 1) Coal: Coal prices have fallen significantly month-on-month; 2) Non-ferrous metals: The US CPI fell unexpectedly, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a significant increase in international industrial metal prices. Flow of people and goods: Improved demand for shipping, with a decrease in port throughput. 1) Passenger transportation: Domestic/international flight frequencies increased by 1.0%/1.5% month-on-month and 1.8%/5.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decrease in long-distance travel demand month-on-month, but a significant improvement year-on-year. 2) Freight transportation: Freight logistics demand fluctuates slightly month-on-month, with national highway truck traffic volume/railway freight volume increasing by 2.0%/-2.0% month-on-month, and national postal express collection/delivery volume decreasing by 1.7%/+3.4% month-on-month. 3) Shipping: Dry bulk transportation prices continue to fall, while container shipping prices increase month-on-month; China's port cargo/container throughput decreased by 1.4%/-5.9% month-on-month, indicating a marginal decline in export prosperity. Risk factors: Uncertainty in domestic policies, uncertainty in trade frictions, and uncertainty in global geopolitical conditions.