The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States unexpectedly decreased, disrupted by holiday season factors.

Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States decreased, highlighting the seasonal fluctuations in data at this time of year. According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Wednesday, for the week ending December 20, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, lower than the expected 224,000. For the week ending December 13, the number of continuing unemployment claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million after seasonal adjustment. This increase is consistent with a survey released by the World Federation of Major Enterprises on Tuesday, which showed that consumer confidence in the labor market deteriorated to its lowest level since early 2021. The November unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6%, partly due to technical factors related to the government shutdown. Recent data has faced challenges with seasonal adjustments ahead of the holiday season, causing fluctuations. The labor market is still in what economists and policymakers call a "no hiring, no firing" mode. Despite the resilience of the US economy, the labor market is nearly stagnant. In recent weeks, there has been significant fluctuation in the number of new initial unemployment claims, which is common during the holiday season. At the beginning of the month, the number of claims rebounded from a three-year low during Thanksgiving, and now it is starting to decrease again. Last week, the four-week moving average, used to smooth volatility, also decreased. The data released on Wednesday is consistent with the relatively low trend of layoffs in the labor market, which has remained unchanged this year despite increasing economic uncertainty. Although several large employers, including PepsiCo and HP, have announced layoff plans recently, these plans have not yet translated into a significant increase in actual layoffs. Without seasonal adjustment, the number of initial unemployment claims increased last week. The largest increases were seen in New Jersey, Oregon, and Washington. A report released on Tuesday showed that consumer confidence has been declining for the fifth consecutive month in December, partly due to consumers' pessimism about the current state of the labor market. The percentage of consumers who believe that job prospects are grim has risen to the highest level since early 2021.