The Year of "Consequences of Tariffs"? Aftermath of Tariffs and Threats to the Supply Chain Will Strike in 2026, Global Trade is Destined to be Turbulent.

The global trade system is coming to an end after the most transformative and dramatic year in the past century. However, as we enter 2026, we will face even more and more severe challenges, threatening the stability of trade and global economic growth. With the arrival of 2026, the global trade system is facing many challenges in terms of stability and growth, with constant changes in the underlying currents, including a shrinkage in the scale of US imports and strong growth in imports from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India. Some trade experts predict that there may be more and larger-scale trade turmoil in 2026, including a reexamination of the USMCA trade agreement, the continued impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on global supply chains, and the risk of trade agreements being canceled due to lack of enforcement terms. One ruling that deserves high attention from foreign trade business teams and investors holding stocks closely related to US trade is the pending ruling by the US Supreme Court on the legality of Trump's equal tariffs, which is one of the biggest unknowns in the trade world. The potential consequences include refunds to US importers and changes to the details of Trump administration tariffs. The Year of Tariff Consequences: Global Trade Faces More Turmoil in 2026 Despite US President Donald Trump's efforts to build strong tariff barriers around the world's largest economy, the global trade system remained relatively stable in 2025 under the pressure of tariffs. Statistics cited by John McCown, a veteran in the shipping industry, this week showed that global container shipping volume grew by 2.1% year-on-year in October. However, beneath the overall trade resilience, there are some rapidly changing underlying factors: US imports have fallen by about 8% this year, while imports from Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India have shown strong growth. The above chart shows that US merchandise imports have lagged behind the growth pace of global trade volume - global container shipping/throughput outside the US remains resilient. McCown wrote in a research report on Monday, "The global container supply chain has begun to adjust and reconfigure trade patterns." Statistics show that in 2024, US container imports grew by 15.2%, and he said, "to say that the annual total in 2025 is the opposite of this is an understatement." The trade threats initiated by the Trump administration are one of the main reasons for the global reshuffling of freight, McCown wrote in a post on LinkedIn. If 2025 was the year of tariffs, then 2026 will be the "Year of Tariff Consequences." Some top experts in the foreign trade and shipping industries have recently indicated that they expect more and larger-scale trade turmoil in the US and globally next year, with four trade-related themes being the most widely discussed: Revisiting the USMCA Agreement It is understood that the US, Canada, and Mexico are about to begin a review of the North American Free Trade Agreement that came into effect in 2020. According to Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative's comments to US lawmakers this month, this negotiation will lead the three countries into "new territory" as the terms of the agreement can be renewed after six years of iteration. Greer stated that the US government received over 1500 public comments before the review work began. Greer said, "Many stakeholders support the USMCA agreement, many are explicitly calling for an extension of the agreement's term. At the same time, almost all stakeholders are also calling for some degree of improvement to the agreement." However, any "improvement" initiated by one of the North American countries may come at the expense of the actual benefits of other members. This also paves the way for difficult negotiations between these largest trade partners and the US, whose industries are struggling due to the aggressive import tariffs imposed by the US. Relations between the US and Canada are already tense, and they worsened after Trump terminated trade talks with Canada in October over ads criticizing tariffs that involved Ronald Reagan. Impact on Maritime Shipping For major players in container shipping and other major "forces" of global trade transport, next year may bring two very significant impacts that, although sound like welcome developments for shareholders in shipping stocks, may actually disrupt the global supply chain as they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime consulting firm. The first change will be the re-use of the Red Sea by the world's freight fleet, instead of the longer route ships had to take around South Africa for the past two years. Since the Gaza peace plan took effect in October, attacks by Houthi militants in the Red Sea have significantly decreased, making the old route more attractive to large cargo ships. Global shipping companies such as France's CMA CGM and Denmark's Maersk have already started sending a few ships through the Red Sea. However, Jensen said at a Flexport webinar in November that fully re-opening the Red Sea route and the shortcut route through the Suez Canal will "bring significant capacity to the market," but will lead to "massive port congestion in Europe." The second blow could be demand-driven, according to Jensen. If the US economy accelerates its growth in 2026 towards a "soft landing," as predicted by Trump administration officials, if this growth is driven by investment prosperity and lower interest rates, the ensuing inventory replenishment may overwhelm the shipping industry's capacity to respond. Instability of Agreements The US government completed several significant trade agreements in 2025 that are crucial for US economic growth. These agreements were reached through difficult negotiations under Trump's demands for substantial investment commitments and better market access conditions, with the consequence that the tariffs on goods from these countries are lower than the retaliatory tariffs they would face when trading back. However, these are not traditional trade agreements with enforcement provisions and specific rules, and the agreements with the US's largest trading partner, China, are only temporary trade truce agreements lasting for one year and not comprehensive trade cooperation agreements - which overlook the US's most imbalanced trade relationship. This has led to increasing concerns among investors that these agreements may collapse, especially in the face of potential pressure from Beijing on any country willing to cooperate with Washington and harm Chinese interests. The past month's developments have shown the risks at this level. Since the White House announced a "landmark trade agreement" in July, Indonesia has been resisting US trade demands, fearing that these demands could restrict its trade policy independence, and now the agreement is expected to be signed in January. China has lodged protests with Malaysia and Cambodia, stating that the trade agreements they have signed with Washington may harm China's interests. Even the UK and the EU are facing new challenges. Last week, US Trade Representative Greer specifically mentioned the EU and India, saying that the contentious trade negotiations between the two on trade agreements will continue into the new year. Greer's office threatened in a post on social media that if the EU overly regulates American tech companies, retaliatory measures will be taken against the EU. Ruling by the Supreme Court As we enter 2026, one of the biggest uncertainties in the global trade circle is undoubtedly the pending ruling by the US Supreme Court on the final legality of the Trump administration's so-called "equal tariffs" policy - the core principle behind the widespread tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on most major trading partners. If Trump loses the case, one of the most important questions concerning the US economy and fiscal outlook will be whether the US government needs to refund importers for the tariff payments they made. It is unclear whether this will happen promptly or in an organized manner. Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council and a top contender for Federal Reserve Chairman, said. "It's hard to imagine that the US Supreme Court would require the Trump administration to make large refunds because it would be an administrative dispute issue". Online participants paying betting fees on gambling platforms assess the odds of Trump losing the case at around 75%, meaning that the Trump administration will have to use its other presidential powers to continue imposing these fully implemented tariffs. When asked if 2026 will be calmer in terms of global tariff policy issues than this year, Greer, in a recent interview, refused to make any predictions. "It's President Trump's decision," he said.