China Securities Co., Ltd.: The quantum computing industry is entering a period of rapid growth with enormous growth potential and high expectations.
The global market size of the quantum computing industry is expected to exceed 800 billion dollars by 2035.
China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that 2025 is the "International Year of Quantum Science and Technology" and a crucial year for the acceleration of quantum technology from theoretical research to industrial application. Major countries around the world are intensifying their quantum strategic layout, with China placing quantum technology at the forefront of future industries in its "15th Five-Year Plan". Quantum technology has become a new global battleground. Currently, quantum computing is in the era of noisy intermediate-scale quantum, with mainstream technologies such as superconducting, ion traps, photonic quantum, and neutral atoms advancing in parallel and yet to converge. The focus of development lies in the upstream of the industry chain. The quantum computing industry is entering a stage of rapid growth, with the global market size expected to exceed $800 billion by 2035. The downstream is in the early stages of development, but with huge growth potential and worth looking forward to.
Main points from China Securities Co., Ltd.:
Quantum computing reshapes the boundaries of computation and leads the future industry development.
Quantum computing utilizes quantum mechanical phenomena to break classical computing bottlenecks and reshape the boundaries of computation. It has gradually entered the era of noisy intermediate-scale quantum, with mainstream technologies such as superconducting, ion traps, photonic quantum, and neutral atoms advancing in parallel, collectively promoting the practicality and scalability of quantum computing. China's "15th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes quantum technology as the future industry, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology leading the establishment of the Quantum Information Standardization Technical Committee, outlining the blueprint for the development of quantum technology industry. Major countries around the world are ramping up their quantum strategic layout, accelerating their advantage in development, and quantum technology has become a new global battleground.
Mainstream technology paths have not yet converged, and the focus of development lies in the upstream of the industry chain.
The upstream of the quantum computing industry chain mainly covers quantum chips, environmental and measurement control systems, and other key components, with the mainstream technology paths yet to converge leading to unclear competitive landscape in the upstream of the industry chain. The midstream mainly involves quantum computers and software algorithms, considering the high cost of whole machines and the complexity of software algorithms, cloud platforms may become a key link for the downstream acceleration of quantum computing penetration. The downstream of the industry chain mainly covers various fields such as research, finance, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, which have not yet demonstrated scale breakthroughs in exponential acceleration or quantum superiority from theoretical research to commercialization.
Quantum computing is expected to enter a phase of high compounded growth, with significant market growth potential.
According to the Photon Box Research Institute, quantum computing is expected to enter a phase of high compounded growth, with the global quantum computing industry expected to grow from around $5 billion in 2024 to around $800 billion in 2035, accounting for nearly 90% of the quantum technology market share and becoming its major growth engine. The development of the upstream of the industry chain is relatively mature and growing significantly, while the downstream is in the early stages of the industry with huge growth potential, expected to grow from around $270 million in 2024 to around $260.7 billion in 2035. The quantum computing bidding market focuses on key equipment in the upstream, with applications in the research field being the most mainstream in the downstream.
Risk analysis
Risk of lagging behind in core technological breakthroughs; Risk of imperfect industrial ecosystem construction; Risk of scarcity in application landing scenarios; Risk of policy and regulatory mismatch; Risk of imbalance between investment and returns.
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