Hong Kong stocks concept tracking | Tungsten price doubled throughout the year, leading the rise of the entire non-ferrous metal sector (including concept stocks)

According to a report from Chinatungsten Online, on Monday (December 22nd), the crazy tungsten market continued to soar, with two main driving factors: major tungsten enterprises significantly raising purchase prices for long-term orders, and news of production cutbacks from key tungsten raw material production companies, from tungsten ore and tungsten compounds to tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, etc. The tightening supply situation further intensified, with the market's enthusiasm for reaching new highs unabated, driving the overall upward trend in tungsten product prices. As of December 18th, tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate, and tungsten powder prices continued to rise, with the price of tungsten powder (99.7%) reaching 1.01 million yuan/ton, a 219.6% increase from the beginning of the year; domestically produced tungsten powder (99.7%) prices collected by Wind also rose to 1.045 million yuan/ton, with a very significant increase compared to November. Industry experts point out that the recent accelerated rise in tungsten prices may be related to supply constraints and long-term price increases approaching the end of the year. CICC stated that due to factors such as declining ore grade and stricter regulatory requirements domestically, the pressure to reduce production on the supply side is increasing, while there is uncertainty in the progress of overseas major incremental projects being put into production. In addition, ongoing geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas inflation pressures require higher incentive prices for global tungsten supply increments. Therefore, they believe that tungsten prices are expected to continue to trade on the strong side in the short term and set new highs. CICC believes that the core of tungsten prices is dominated by supply and demand relationships, and they expect the global tungsten supply-demand relationship to remain tight, thereby driving the core tungsten prices to continue to rise. As the global tungsten supply-demand gap widens, market expectations are for the long-term price point to rise to 45,000-50,000 yuan/ton, and this trend is expected to continue until 2028. CICC pointed out that from 2025 to 2028, global tungsten production is expected to increase from 82,800 tons to 89,900 tons, while demand during the same period will rise from 102,100 tons to 110,000 tons, leading to a continuing supply-demand gap. In the medium to long term, as the manufacturing industry accelerates its transformation and upgrade, the marginal demand for new tungsten-based materials in areas such as AI, controlled nuclear fusion, and new infrastructure will further drive, providing long-term support for tungsten prices. Tungsten ore-related Hong Kong stocks: JIAXIN INTL RES (03858): In April 2025, the Bakuta tungsten mine project began commercial production, with a target annual mining and mineral processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore in 2025. In the first half of 2025, Jiaxin International processed 945,000 tons of ore, producing 1,205 tons of tungsten concentrate, with a target production of 1.65 million tons of ore and 3,638 tons of tungsten concentrate in the second half of the year, tripling compared to the first half. In the first quarter of 2027, the second phase of the project is expected to start production, with the target annual mining and mineral processing capacity increasing to 4.95 million tons, and the company's production capacity will see accelerated release. CMSC expects ore selection volumes of 3.8 to 4.95 million tons in 2026-2027, corresponding to tungsten concentrate production of 11,000 to 13,700 tons. In terms of production, Jiaxin International's tungsten concentrate production is expected to reach 13,700 tons in 2027; in terms of prices, the market generally expects the long-term price point for tungsten concentrates to be 450,000-500,000 yuan/ton; in terms of costs, the cost per ton of concentrated ore can be as low as 49,000 yuan in 2027.