Guosen: Maintain a "outperform" rating on CALB (03931) as the business moves towards globalization and diversification.

Guosen released a research report stating that CALB (03931) energy storage battery shipments are growing rapidly, achieving rapid development domestically and internationally by collaborating with top customers. The company is deeply engaged in scenarios such as power storage, industrial and commercial storage, and household storage, comprehensively laying out products to meet customer demand. The diversification and globalization of power battery customers are gradually progressing, helping the company's battery profitability to continue to improve. Adjusting profit forecast, maintaining a rating better than the market. Key points from Guosen include: Events: According to SNEResearch data, CALB's global market share in power batteries from January to October 2025 was 4.7%, continuing to increase year-on-year; In October, the monthly installation volume surpassed LG New Energy, entering the global top three for the first time. The company's power battery shipments are increasing rapidly, and the business is moving towards globalization and diversification. The company continues to develop domestic and international customers, with shipments and market share significantly increasing; The bank estimates that the company's power battery shipments in 2025 are expected to be close to 70GWh, with a year-on-year growth of over 50%. In the passenger vehicle sector, the company has deep cooperation with customers such as Xiaopeng, Lixiang, GAC, and Chang'an, and has successively won orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle customers, accelerating globalization. In the commercial vehicle sector, the company has covered customers such as Geely, Chery, and Ruichi, successfully delivering electric bus batteries and electric heavy-duty truck batteries overseas. The diversification and globalization of the company's power battery customers are gradually progressing, helping to continuously improve profitability. The company's energy storage battery shipments are growing rapidly, achieving rapid development domestically and internationally by collaborating with top customers. As one of the earliest companies to mass-produce 314Ah cells in the industry, the company continues to promote product optimization and upgrades, introducing a series of products such as 314Ah second generation, 392Ah, 588Ah, 684Ah, etc., catering to diverse customer needs. In terms of customers, the company has deep cooperation with customers such as Sungrow Power Supply and CRRC Zhuzhou, steadily increasing market share. At the same time, the company is accelerating its overseas expansion, delivering energy storage batteries in regions such as Saudi Arabia and Europe, actively expanding overseas local customers. The bank estimates that the company's energy storage battery shipments in 2025 are expected to reach around 45GWh, with a year-on-year growth of over 75%. Meanwhile, with the rapid progress of overseas projects and the development of overseas customers, the company's profitability of energy storage batteries is expected to continue to improve. Investment recommendations: Taking into account the impact of fluctuations in the structure of shipments from bases with different ownership ratios on net profit attributable to shareholders, the bank has lowered its profit forecast for 2025. Furthermore, considering the positive impact of increased demand for energy storage and commercial vehicles, as well as successful development of overseas customers on shipment volume and unit profit, the bank has raised its profit forecast for 2026-2027. It is expected that the company will achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.15/26.75/39.04 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 (previously forecasted as 13.76/21.18/30.28 billion yuan), an increase of +106%/+120%/+46% year-on-year, with EPS of 0.69/1.51/2.20 yuan, and dynamic PE ratios of 34.9/15.8/10.8 times, maintaining a rating better than the market. Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales are lower than expected; Energy storage demand is lower than expected; Risks of intensified industry competition; Risks of significant fluctuations in raw material prices; Risks of trade protectionism and trade friction; Overseas capacity construction progresses lower than expected.