China Securities Co., Ltd.: P-type HJT and perovskite tandem structure are expected to become the mainstream technology route for short to medium term space photovoltaics.

China Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that space photovoltaics have transitioned from the experimental stage to a commercial acceleration phase. Compared to ground-based photovoltaic scenarios, it has not only overcome intermittent bottlenecks but also provided long-term energy support for space computing power, deep space exploration, remote area power supply, military emergency, and other scenarios. P-type HJT cells have the most obvious advantages in radiation resistance and lightweight in existing mass production technologies. The penetration rate is expected to increase after 2026, focusing mainly on executing low-cost, low-power tasks in low-earth orbit in the short term. Perovskite and stacked cells are expected to gradually take on tasks of low-earth constellation and deep space exploration after 2028, relying on their high specific power and radiation resistance advantages. Focus on companies leading in materials, equipment, and other areas. Key points from China Securities Co., Ltd. include: Space photovoltaic technology Space-based solar power (SBSP) is a new energy solution chain of "space power generation-wireless transmission-ground reception". It has entered a commercial acceleration phase after 2024. Its core advantage lies in its reliance on undiminished, highly stable, uninterrupted AM0 light source supply, with annual electricity hours and energy density increasing by 4-7 and 7-10 times respectively compared to ground-based photovoltaics, which can meet the high security, high coverage, and high cost power supply needs of space computing power, deep space exploration, remote area power supply, military bases, emergency rescue, and other scenarios. Clear differentiation of scenarios in the space photovoltaic technology roadmap The bank expects that in the short term (2024-2027), gallium arsenide cells will dominate high-value communication satellites, deep space exploration, and other scenarios, but faces difficulties in scaling in low-earth scenarios due to cost and production constraints. In the medium term (2026-2030), P-type HJT cells have better radiation resistance and lightweight performance in existing mass production technologies, and are expected to gradually penetrate short-term tasks in low-earth orbit. In the long term (after 2028), perovskite stacked cells will accelerate breakthroughs with high specific power advantages, achieving high electricity generation efficiency while also having outstanding lightweight capabilities, expanding from current spacecraft power supply applications to directed transmission at space CECEP Solar Energy stations by 2030, ultimately supporting the scaled deployment of GW-level space data centers after 2035. Focus on flexible links and companies leading in space photovoltaics On the raw material side, focus on gallium arsenide, high-purity gallium smelting, and silicon carbide substrate companies. In equipment, focus on companies with breakthroughs in domestic MOCVD equipment technology. In manufacturing, layout in cell manufacturing and power system links, while also paying attention to beneficiaries of technologies such as perovskite, HJT. Key targets include Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology, Risen Energy, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation, J.S. Corrugating Machinery, Han's Laser Technology Industry Group and Suzhou Delphi Laser, among others. Risk Analysis Technical risk; cost risk; policy risk; competition risk.