A stunning epic narrative is sweeping through the cryptocurrency circle: Cryptocurrencies are expected to become "too big to fail" by 2026.

Recently, a highly exciting "2026 Cryptocurrency Market Event Prediction" has emerged in the field of cryptocurrency investments: it is predicted that the United States President Trump will officially integrate the "cryptocurrency market" into the so-called "Too Big to Fail" financial system by 2026, which signifies that the importance of the cryptocurrency market will almost be on par with top financial giants on Wall Street such as JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs. When the fraudulent cryptocurrency exchange empire FTX collapsed in 2022, causing significant turmoil in the global cryptocurrency market, no one in the White House thought it was their problem. The government under then-President Joe Biden held a serious skepticism towards Bitcoin and other blockchain-based cryptocurrency assets, and regulatory agencies deliberately maintained a firewall between the volatile cryptocurrency business and mainstream financial institutions. As we approach 2026, the situation in the cryptocurrency market is vastly different now. Donald Trump and his family are deeply involved with cryptocurrencies. The loss of confidence in a major stablecoin could significantly damage the U.S. bond market and even the liquidity of the entire U.S. financial market including stocks, bonds, and forex. If another cryptocurrency exchange collapse similar to FTX happens next year, it is expected that the current White House administration will choose to intervene forcefully. Cryptocurrency supporters have many reasons to thank Trump. According to CoinGecko statistics, in the 12 months after his victory in the 2024 U.S. election, the total market value of digital token assets including Bitcoin and Ethereum surged by $1.2 trillion, setting new all-time highs for both cryptocurrencies within a year of Trump's election victory. The U.S. government under Trump's leadership has been supporting this industry and prioritizing legislation to provide a stable legal foundation for stablecoins and U.S.-backed cryptocurrency assets. Some Wall Street institutions calculated in October that the broader "Trump Group" made $802 million in profit from its cryptocurrency business in the first half of 2025. If there is a widespread sell-off of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the near future, the President and his family would have a strong incentive to intervene in some form. The triggering mechanism has always been there In fact, the cryptocurrency market is not lacking in potential triggers for a bailout, and these triggers may persist long-term. The most dramatic scenario would involve a run on stablecoins with large market capitalizations like Tether's USDT; as of late November, the stablecoin token size is around $180 billion. This type of coin, which is pegged to the U.S. dollar, is backed by assets such as short-term U.S. government debt and can be redeemed in dollars. However, in a comprehensive collapse, it remains an unresolved question whether this will still hold true. According to its reserve report in September, the company issuing these stablecoin tokens has a cushion of around $7 billion in equity. This means that if the value of its assets falls by 4%, the token holders' tokens would no longer be fully backed by the dollar assets unless the parent company steps in to help. In a full-scale crisis, this safety margin may not be sufficient. For example, look at the case of Circle Internet's USDC in 2023: when a Silicon Valley bank collapsed, it held 8% of its stablecoin reserves as deposits. The token fell below $1 on the secondary market a situation known as "breaking the buck." In contrast, some of Tether's reserves appear to have significantly higher volatility compared to Circle. As of September, Bitcoin accounted for 5% of the assets supporting USDT, while gold, silver, and other precious metals accounted for 7%. If investors collectively flee from Tether due to concerns of losses, causing it to lose its peg, most assets in the cryptocurrency market would suffer greatly. "Dollar-cryptocurrency pairs" are usually quoted in USDT, which means that the mechanisms in the cryptocurrency market could be completely frozen. Additionally, a run could likely force stablecoin issuers to suddenly sell off large amounts of U.S. debt, causing trouble for key global financial assets. Even without considering Trump's pro-cryptocurrency inclinations, this would still raise the attention of the market-friendly officials in the White House. Tether has close ties to Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street financial firm once owned by former U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and now managed by his son. Another possibility is a cryptocurrency exchange collapsing. The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) pointed out in a recent report that large cryptocurrency exchange groups like Binance, OKX, and Bybit differ from traditional stock exchanges, as some of them also provide custody, financing, and investment or "yield" services. In some cases, these cryptocurrency exchange groups or their owners may also operate their own cryptocurrency trading businesses. Regulators do not allow this model to exist in mainstream finance because it brings conflicts of interest and contagion risk. For example, a major hack, trading losses, or loan losses could weaken an exchange and affect its ability to provide other crucial market services. The ESRB concluded that the collapse of one cryptocurrency exchange giant could have a "severe and even catastrophic" impact on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. The industry concentration further significantly raises the risk: according to CoinGecko data, in centralized exchanges, Binance, MEXC, Gate, Bitget, and Bybit collectively processed 71% of spot cryptocurrency trading volume in July. How would the "Too Big to Fail" cryptocurrency bailout system that Trump may establish operate? How the potential bailout mechanism that the Trump administration may establish would operate depends on the nature of the issue at hand. The liquidity issue of stablecoins like Tether would be akin to a run on large commercial banks. Therefore, a seemingly logical course of action might resemble what former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve did during the 2023 Silicon Valley bank-induced regional banking crisis: proposing loans backed by high-quality assets to alleviate liquidity panic. This plan would be backed by the Treasury Department's Exchange Stabilization Fund a fund pool that does not require approval from Congress. The Trump administration recently used it to provide financial aid to Argentina. If the White House wishes to prevent a collapsing exchange from triggering chain losses, it might revamp the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" or "Digital Asset Stockpile" as a backstop mechanism for the market. These vehicles were set up in early 2025 to consolidate the government's dispersed holdings of crypto tokens; White House advisor David Sacks suggested that it might include 200,000 bitcoins valued at $18 billion based on late November prices. These vehicles were supposed to remain budget-neutral. However, it's entirely possible that Trump would waive this requirement in a potential cryptocurrency or stablecoin crisis and even sell off other government assets (like gold) to purchase bitcoins and other troubled digital assets. Another key incentive that might drive him to take actual intervention measures is the fact that mainstream banks are now allowed to venture into this volatile domain the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency stated in March that traditional lending institutions may choose to engage in certain cryptocurrency-related activities, including providing custody and financing associated with stablecoins. This opens up the possibility of a collapse in digital assets infecting the traditional financial sector. There are also ample political reasons for intervention. A Gallup survey found that around one in seven American adults held cryptocurrency in July. The advocacy group Public Citizen calculated in August 2024 that cryptocurrency companies were the dominant political force spenders in that election cycle, accounting for 44% of all corporate donations. Trump's pro-cryptocurrency measures helped spur the boom of the 2025 cryptocurrency super bull market; in turn, this means that the public may attribute a collapse to him. As the crucial midterm elections approach, he would find it difficult to ignore the market's anxiety towards cryptocurrency assets. The potential threat to his family's wealth also provides further political motivation for intervention. The founder of Bitcoin seems to be primarily driven by anger over the government spending significant amounts to bail out large commercial banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Nearly twenty years later, the movement that originally arose in protest against "Too Big to Fail" is ready to join this club, which seems to be the fate of cryptocurrency.