Stock price surged by 86% in a year. Behind the scenes: Intel Corporation (INTC.US) still has not secured key manufacturing clients. Can the 14A process win back Apple Inc. and NVIDIA Corporation?

It is noted that for Intel, 2025 was a year of frequent significant events, but this did not necessarily change its fundamental narrative. The American chip manufacturer welcomed a new CEO and received huge investments from the US government, Nvidia, and SoftBank. These developments propelled its stock price to rise by 86% in the year, outperforming the "Big Seven" tech stocks and its competitor AMD. At the same time, Intel's crucial manufacturing division still lacks a major external customer - a necessary condition for its cash-draining business to achieve sustainable growth. Morningstar analyst Brian Colello stated, "Intel ended the year on a positive note, with the belief that they will at some point become a dominant American chip maker... which was certainly uncertain at the beginning of the year." He also pointed out, "Similarly, there hasn't been a significant deal to truly solidify Intel's position in the manufacturing field." The company's technology has largely contributed to the reputation of the digital revolution and Silicon Valley as a global innovation hub: Intel invented the world's first microprocessor (or computer chip) and x86 architecture - the critical blueprint for designing computer chips. Its co-founder Gordon Moore proposed the "Moore's Law," defining the pace of innovation in the semiconductor industry for over half a century. Even as other companies in the industry shifted to an "fabless" model - outsourcing manufacturing to companies like TSMC - Intel continued to manufacture computer chips on its own. However, years of mistakes and poor investment decisions have left Intel's manufacturing division behind TSMC, leading to its products losing their edge against competitors. With its market share in chips for servers, laptops, and desktop CPUs being taken by AMD and Arm, its manufacturing business has lost the scale necessary to sustain itself. Former CEO Pat Gelsinger's four-year aggressive transformation efforts to revitalize Intel's manufacturing division by opening up to external customers scared off investors. The large investment required to restart the foundry business, coupled with the uncertainty of its success, has caused anxiety on Wall Street. After Gelsinger was ousted by the board at the end of 2024, Pat Gelsinger was appointed CEO in March 2025, restoring confidence in the market about the company's potential transformation. Analysts explained that while Intel's strategy remained largely unchanged under Pat Gelsinger's leadership, investors appreciated his cautious tone, cost-cutting measures, and extensive industry connections. When Pat Gelsinger clashed with President Trump over business ties with China, the US government made a rare $9 billion investment in the company (although the funds were supposed to come from Biden's "Chip Act" era), turning this faint confidence into a real one. Since the pandemic highlighted the risks of relying on Taiwan's tech supply chain, bringing semiconductor manufacturing back to the US has been a key focus of the US government. Technalysis Research analyst Bob O'Donnell stated, "Semiconductors are not only economically important, but also crucial for national security. Intel, as a truly American company, has the largest existing infrastructure to date." Many critics believe that investments in Intel, for example, underline broader shifts towards state capitalism under Trump's leadership, raising questions about conflicts between national security and government interests. However, analysts suggest that the US government holding a 10% stake in Intel could bring various positive outcomes for the company, such as having a say in shaping semiconductor trade policies. Moreover, the government may intervene to encourage or compel large companies like Apple to use Intel's foundries. With $20 billion investment from Softbank and $50 billion investment from Nvidia, investors' sentiment towards Intel's stock has further improved. This cash infusion helps mitigate the massive losses as the company explores its way forward. However, it is worth noting that the deal with Nvidia does not include an agreement for Intel's foundry business to manufacture chips for the AI giant. "Everything depends on the 14A process." Intel's foundry business's most significant potential clients - Nvidia, Apple, and Qualcomm - are also competitors to some extent and have long-term partnerships with TSMC. Not to mention, TSMC is building manufacturing capacity worth $165 billion in the US, weakening the arguments for companies using Intel to produce chips for geopolitical reasons. To win over these clients, Intel will need to prove that its latest generation of manufacturing processes is qualified. Analysts suggest that the 18A process initially promoted by Intel to external clients is a significant technical achievement, but currently mainly used for manufacturing Intel's own products. The success of these products - Intel's upcoming Panther Lake chips for personal computers and Clearwater Forest chips for data centers - may help convince other companies to use its next-generation 18AP and 14A processes. There are rumors that Apple may use Intel's manufacturing process, especially its 18AP process, to produce its entry-level computer chips. BNP Paribas analyst David O'Connor estimates that Intel has 12 to 18 months to secure a major external client for the 14A process to ensure its continued advancement as planned. He called the process the "key to the success of Intel's foundry business and even whether it will remain in the manufacturing business in the long term." O'Connor stated, "Everything depends on the 14A process and its success." Other analysts have provided a longer timeline for Intel to turn its losses around. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon said, "It took (Intel) 10 years to get to this point. Why would it take less than 10 years to fix it?"