Cinda: The market share of e-commerce express delivery leader is increasing, and we recommend S.F. Holding (002352.SZ) in terms of direct operation.

Cinda released a research report stating that in terms of direct sales, it recommends S.F. Holding (002352.SZ), as it sees the company entering a new development stage after the turning point in its operations and cash flow. In terms of franchise sales, with the promotion of "anti-internal competition" in the express delivery industry, the average ticket price of listed companies has significantly increased month-on-month, coupled with the growth in parcel volume during the industry's peak season, the performance of express delivery companies is expected to significantly recover. Since 2025, the industry structure has accelerated differentiation, and it is optimistic about the continuous increase in market share of leading companies, and recommends ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) and YTO Express Group (600233.SH). Cinda's main points are as follows: Parcel volume situation: The express delivery business volume in November increased by 5.0%, with SF Express optimizing its business growth rate month-on-month, and Shentong's consolidation with DianNiao driving scale improvement. 1) Upstream drivers and industry aspects: The express delivery industry business volume increased by 5.0% year-on-year in November. The cumulative physical goods online retail sales from January to November were 11.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, which is about 1.7 percentage points higher than the year-on-year growth rate of total social retail sales; the cumulative online shopping penetration rate was about 25.9%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the cumulative value of each parcel was about 65.4 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%. From January to November, the total volume of express delivery business in China reached 180.74 billion items, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year, of which the volume of express delivery business in November was about 18.06 billion items, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year. 2) Company business volume situation: In November, DianNiao's consolidation with Shentong drove the company's business scale improvement. a) Monthly value: In November, the express delivery business volume was 2.886 billion items for YTO Express, 2.502 billion items for Shentong, 2.175 billion items for Yunda, and 1.534 billion items for SF Express. In terms of business volume growth rate, SF Express was 20.13% > Shentong 14.67% > YTO Express 13.55% > Yunda -4.19%. SF Express's average unit price in November increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month, shifting from scale-driven to value-driven, which helps to repair the company's profit margin. b) Accumulated value: From January to November 2025, the total volume of express delivery business was 28.26 billion items for YTO Express, 23.637 billion items for Shentong, 23.453 billion items for Yunda, and 15.158 billion items for SF Express. In terms of cumulative growth rate, SF Express was 27.25% > YTO Express 18.10% > Shentong 15.43% > Yunda 9.27%. 3) Market share situation: From January to November, the cumulative market share of express delivery business volume was as follows: YTO Express 15.6% > Shentong 13.1% > Yunda 13.0% > SF Express 8.4%. Compared to the previous year, SF Express increased by 0.8 percentage points, YTO Express increased by 0.4 percentage points, Shentong increased by 0.1 percentage points, and Yunda decreased by 0.7 percentage points. Unit price situation: Business volume optimization led to an increase in SF Express's unit price by 0.29 yuan month-on-month, while the consolidation with DianNiao drove Shentong's unit price to increase by 0.23 yuan month-on-month. 1) Industry end: The unit price of the express delivery industry increased by 1.9% month-on-month in November. The unit price of the express delivery industry in November was 7.62 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%. The cumulative unit price from January to November was 7.50 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%. Since August, the price increase effect after the "anti-internal competition" in the express delivery industry has been significant, and as of November, the unit price of the industry has increased by 0.27 yuan compared to July. 2) Company end: Business volume optimization led to an increase in SF Express's unit price by 0.29 yuan month-on-month, while the consolidation with DianNiao drove Shentong's unit price to increase by 0.23 yuan month-on-month. a) Monthly value: In November, the unit price of express delivery was 13.47 yuan for SF Express (an increase of 0.29 yuan month-on-month), 2.24 yuan for YTO Express (a decrease of 0.05 yuan year-on-year, an increase of 0.01 yuan month-on-month), 2.41 yuan for Shentong (an increase of 0.33 yuan year-on-year, an increase of 0.23 yuan month-on-month), and 2.16 yuan for Yunda (an increase of 0.13 yuan year-on-year, an increase of 0.05 yuan month-on-month); b) Accumulated value: From January to November, the cumulative unit price was 13.73 yuan for SF Express, 2.19 yuan for YTO Express (a decrease of 4.50% year-on-year), 2.07 yuan for Shentong (an increase of 0.89% year-on-year), and 1.98 yuan for Yunda (a decrease of 3.60% year-on-year). Core summary and outlook: There is still growth potential in the industry's parcel volume, and the price increase effect after the "anti-internal competition" is significant. Attention should be given to the progress of the "anti-internal competition" and changes in the industry structure. 1) Volume aspect: The scale expansion of e-commerce parcel volume is still ongoing. With the further rise of live streaming e-commerce, on the one hand, the penetration rate of online shopping consumption continues to increase, and on the other hand, the downward trend and fragmentation of online shopping consumption behaviors have driven the decrease in the value of each express parcel. The express delivery industry still has excess growth potential compared to the upstream e-commerce sector. 2) Competition order: Against the backdrop of "anti-internal competition" in the express delivery industry, the industry has gradually restored prices since August, and the industry continues to promote high-quality development. The express delivery industry structure may accelerate differentiation, and it is recommended to pay attention to the subsequent progress of "anti-internal competition" and changes in the industry structure. Risk factors: Physical goods online shopping demand is lower than expected; deterioration in e-commerce express delivery price competition; decline in stability of end franchisees.