The competition for the Federal Reserve chairman has heated up, with speculation and intrigue in both Wall Street and Washington, as Trump remains indecisive.
Trump has not made a final decision on the candidate for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street giants and Trump's allies are lobbying on all sides of the candidate issue, turning this selection process into a fierce competition that spans the financial and political sectors.
Trump has not made a final decision on the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. After the candidate list was reduced to just Hassett in early December, Warsh returned to the competition with a strong interview last week. Wall Street titans and Trump allies are lobbying various parties on the selection issue, turning this selection process into a fierce competition spanning the financial and political sectors.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Board member Waller also received an interview with Trump this week and has the support of corporate executives. BlackRock executive Rick Rieder plans to interview at Trump's private club in the last week of the year. This indicates that the candidate pool is expanding again, and the competition is intensifying.
According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, Wall Street insiders have been lobbying for Warsh, calling government officials to seek their support, with the goal of excluding Hassett from consideration. Critics believe that Hassett's relationship with Trump is too close, and he may lack credibility as an independent chairman of the central bank in the bond market.
There is a clear divide in the market regarding the candidates. A rapid poll conducted on Wednesday among executives attending a New York conference showed that 81% of respondents support Waller as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, with Hassett and Warsh sharing the remaining votes.
Two leading candidates face different credibility issues.
Both front-runners, Hassett and Warsh, face credibility questions. Critics on Wall Street believe that Hassett's current job responsibilities include defending and criticizing the Fed's policies on television, which makes him unsuitable to lead an independent central bank.
Warsh's disadvantage lies in his strong desire to vie for the position. Some question whether his support for rate cuts and Trump's broader economic agenda is entirely sincere. For months, he has been advocating for rate cuts and shrinking the balance sheet.
Although Warsh's business supporters believe that he is more likely to maintain independence from the White House compared to Hassett, as he is less likely to easily implement rate cuts in an unsupportive economic environment, Trump has told the media that Warsh clearly conveyed to him in their exchanges that the Fed should cut rates.
Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said, "I think you cannot get this job unless you make some commitment to President Trump."
Wall Street titans actively involved in the candidate game.
JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said last week at a private meeting in New York that he believes Hassett is more likely to quickly push for rate cuts, while Warsh would excel as chairman of the Federal Reserve. According to sources, Dimon has been in touch with government officials recently to express similar views on evaluating the two main competitors, while also pointing out the positive traits of other candidates.
People close to Warsh and some officials in the Trump administration believe that Dimon's statements in front of government and external parties actually conveyed his support for Warsh.
In addition, prominent investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who is a long-term partner of Warsh and a former mentor and supervisor of Treasury Secretary Paulson, stated that he did not actively lobby Trump officials to appoint Warsh as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. However, according to sources, he has clearly expressed his desire to support Warsh for the position among Wall Street allies.
Dark horse candidate Waller gains attention.
Waller's inclusion on the candidate list is worth noting because, although he lacks personal connections with Trump, he possesses unique advantages that other candidates do not: he has shown rational and consistent policy arguments on the issue of rate cuts and has a record of pushing for internal reforms at the Federal Reserve.
His supporters point out that Waller, starting from a relatively low-profile position, has pushed for several reforms that may align with Trump's policy tendencies: including opposing race-based hiring programs, working to reduce the Fed's initiatives on climate issues, halting the central bank's digital currency project and turning to support stablecoin development in the private sector, and overseeing budget cuts for regional Fed banks.
Source: Wall Street Watch, author: Li Jia, GMTEight editor: Chen Qiuda
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