Predicting market bets on "global market value first": Next year, Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) will challenge NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) head-on with AI chips.

As artificial intelligence technology continues to drive stock prices higher, Google's parent company Alphabet is making a push for the top spot in global market value, with some market participants already betting that it will surpass both NVIDIA and Apple in the next year. According to the latest data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Alphabet becoming the world's largest company by December 2026 has reached 33%, second only to NVIDIA's 37%. Previously, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe pointed out in a report that the likelihood of either of the two companies becoming the world's largest company was once flat at 36%. Alphabet's stock price has surged over 60% in 2025, poised to become the best performing stock among the "Seven Tech Giants" this year. Last month, the company's market value surpassed Microsoft to rise to third place globally, currently trailing only behind NVIDIA and Apple. Rabe believes that the ranking in the prediction market is "extremely favorable" for Alphabet, and this optimism is mainly due to Google's large language model Gemini and its custom chip known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) showing strong momentum. Rising enthusiasm in the prediction market and market value gap Although Alphabet is currently the third largest company globally, its momentum in catching up with the leaders has drawn close market attention. Current market value data shows that Alphabet still needs to bridge a significant gap in order to surpass NVIDIA, with NVIDIA's current market value at $4.2 trillion and Apple at $4 trillion, while Alphabet stands at $3.7 trillion. However, trading data from Polymarket reflects a change in investor confidence. Jessica Rabe points out that the likelihood of Alphabet surpassing its two major competitors to claim the top spot is on the rise. Although the current 33% probability is slightly lower than NVIDIA's 37%, it suggests that the market believes such a change in ranking is not inconceivable. Despite currently lagging behind NVIDIA in market value, analysts see a scenario where Alphabet could become the top company next year as reasonable. As early as September last year, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson had predicted such a outcome. He believed that thanks to a diversified business line and accelerated growth in the cloud business, Alphabet would not only emerge as a winner in the era of generative AI but also should be seen as a strong competitor for the title of the "world's most valuable company." AI chips and the Gemini model are core drivers The key catalyst for the market's bullish outlook on Alphabet lies in its progress in the custom chip field. Analysts are beginning to discuss whether Alphabet will take market share away from NVIDIA, as the company has started renting out its TPU compute power to customers in addition to internal use. Furthermore, the release of Gemini 3 is also a significant factor driving this year's stock price increase. The model is trained on TPUs and outperforms OpenAI's ChatGPT in key benchmark tests, further validating Alphabet's technological prowess in the integration of software and hardware. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street News," author: Dong Jing; GMTEight Editor: Feng Qiuyi.