Tungsten prices have soared by 220% in the year, reaching a record high. Is the most resilient stock, Jiaxin International (03858), potentially having a 10-fold increase in growth space?

Tungsten price "surges" leading the bull market in metals, Jiashixin International (03858) leads the rise with its "king of elasticity"! According to news from Zhongtung Online, tungsten prices continued to be strong this week, with prices continuing to surge. The prices of major tungsten raw materials increased by 12%-18% weekly, with a cumulative increase of over 200% for the year, making tungsten the most "ferocious" metal in terms of price increase by 2025. In this wave of surging tungsten prices, Jiashixin International, praised by the market as the "king of elasticity in the tungsten mine price cycle," undoubtedly became the brightest "star". After officially listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 28, 2025, Jiashixin International's stock price hit a new high on December 18, closing at HK$44.38 per share, a cumulative increase of over 306% compared to the issue price of HK$10.92 per share, fully demonstrating the market's high recognition of its value. However, those with a deep understanding of the logic behind this round of tungsten price increases and the fundamentals of Jiashixin International will realize that the stock price of Jiashixin International may have just reached the "mountain slope". Looking ahead, with the continuous strong and possibly further upward trend in tungsten prices, coupled with the accelerated release of Jiashixin International's own production capacity, its stock price has great potential to climb to new heights and may embark on a new journey of value discovery. Tungsten long-term average price expected to rise to 45,000-50,000 yuan/ton Since July of this year, there has been a wave of price increases in chemicals, industrial raw materials, and products, attracting high market attention. Among the many commodities seeing price increases, tungsten, as the "leader" in the metal field, has shown outstanding performance - not only leading in price increases for the year but also showing an accelerating upward trend recently. According to the latest monitoring data from Zhongtung Online on December 19, prices of core products in the tungsten industry chain have surged to new highs, with the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate at 430,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 15.3%, and an increase of 202.1% since the beginning of the year; the price of domestic ammonium paratungstate (APT) at 650,000 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 17.1%, and an increase of 208.1% since the beginning of the year; and tungsten powder prices breaking through the 1,000 yuan mark, at 1,030 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 13.2%, and an increase of 226% since the beginning of the year. The latest rise in tungsten prices not only refreshed the historical peak of tungsten prices in recent years but also demonstrated its strong upward momentum in prices in a shocking way with "double-digit weekly increases and doubling performance for the year". The key reason for the 200% increase in tungsten prices for the year lies in the tight supply and clear structural growth in demand. From the supply side, there is limited incremental supply domestically, with a year-on-year decrease of 4,000 tons in domestic tungsten mining quotas in 2025. The main producing areas of Hunan and Jiangxi have limited capacity for increased production, and the commissioning of the overseas Sangdong tungsten mine has been delayed, making it difficult for overseas supply to fill the gap. From the demand side, there has been significant growth in demand for tungsten in various fields. In the photovoltaic field, with the trend of "thinning" silicon wafers, the demand for tungsten wire diamond wire to replace traditional high-carbon steel wire has increased significantly, with the global demand for tungsten wire for photovoltaics expected to reach 12,000 tons in 2025. In the military and high-end manufacturing fields, data from the State Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense show that military hard alloy orders are expected to increase by +42% in 2025, and the localization rate of CNC machine tool cutters has increased to 65%, significantly boosting the demand for tungsten products. In addition, the implementation of China's policy restricting the export of tungsten products in February 2025 has also pushed up the prices of overseas products. CICC believes that due to factors such as declining grade, stricter regulatory requirements, and the uncertainty in the progress of major overseas incremental projects, combined with the continuous and heightened geopolitical conflicts and overseas inflation pressures, a higher incentive price is needed for global tungsten supply increment. Therefore, they believe that tungsten prices are expected to continue to trend strong in the short term and continue to hit new highs. Looking at the long term, CICC believes that tungsten prices are dominated by supply and demand relationships and expects the global tungsten supply-demand relationship to remain tight, thereby driving the continuous rise in tungsten prices. By calculating the amount of tungsten metal, they expect the global production of primary tungsten to increase from 79,500 tons in 2023 to 89,900 tons in 2028, while global demand for primary tungsten will increase from 96,200 tons to 110,000 tons. With the widening global tungsten supply-demand gap, it is expected that the long-term price center of tungsten may rise to 45,000-50,000 yuan/ton and continue until 2028. Multiple advantages solidify a high elastic foundation In this round of the tungsten mine price surge cycle, Jiashixin International has been identified by the market as the well-deserved "king of elasticity." This is because it not only has the largest open-pit tungsten mine in the world but also guarantees the precise positioning of its production capacity release in the bull market cycle of tungsten prices under the empowerment of state-owned shareholders. Jiashixin International is a tungsten mining company rooted in Kazakhstan, focusing on the development of the Bakuta tungsten mine project. As of June 2025, the Bakuta tungsten mine had a reserve of 107 million tons of ore (with a grade of 0.211% WO), with a tungsten trioxide resource of 227.3 thousand tons, making it the fourth-largest tungsten mine in the world in terms of WO ore reserves (including open-pit and underground tungsten mines) and the largest open-pit tungsten mine in the world. It also possesses the largest designed tungsten mine capacity in a single tungsten mine. Different from pure mining developers, the shareholder background of Jiashixin International provides it with unique synergistic advantages. Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction Corporation respectively hold 41.65% and 15% of Jiashixin International's shares. Jiangxi Copper is one of China's largest tungsten smelting enterprises and can prioritize the consumption of the primary products of the Bakuta tungsten mine, reducing sales risks; China Railway Construction Corporation leads the construction of railways and ports in the mining area, reducing logistics costs by 15%-20% compared to its peers. This "resource + engineering + trade" circular model allows Jiashixin International to flexibly connect with European hard alloy manufacturers through the trading channels within state-owned enterprises, thus avoiding policy risks. The synchronization of production capacity release rhythm and the tungsten price bull market cycle is also a significant highlight of Jiashixin International, meaning that the company can enjoy the dual dividends of "increasing quantity and price". By April 2025, the Bakuta tungsten mine project had begun commercial production of its first phase, with an annual target mining and ore processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore in 2025. In the first half of 2025, Jiashixin International processed 945,000 tons of ore, producing 1,205 tons of tungsten concentrate, and the target production of ore in the second half of the year is 1.65 million tons, with 3,638 tons of tungsten concentrate, three times the production in the first half of the year. In the first quarter of 2027, the second phase of the project is expected to commence production, with the target annual mining and ore processing capacity increasing to 4.95 million tons, and the company's production capacity will see accelerated release. CMSC expects ore processing capacity of 3.8/4.95 million tons in 2026-2027, corresponding to tungsten concentrate production of 11/13.7 thousand tons. While the production capacity is rapidly being released, the Bakuta tungsten mine project has cost advantages, which will quickly strengthen the profitability of Jiashixin International in the future. CMSC states that the project uses an open-pit mining method, which has obvious cost advantages, and the company plans to transport the mined ore from the mining area to the crushing station using self-dumping trucks. The crushed ore will be transported to the coarse ore stack at the dressing plant via a two-kilometer-long conveyor belt, reducing transportation costs. Furthermore, compared to other countries with large tungsten mines, the land use, water, electricity, natural gas, and labor costs in Kazakhstan are lower, and the second-phase development project of the Bakuta tungsten mine has been included in Kazakhstan's national strategic mineral list, with local government tax incentives and infrastructure support. CMSC believes that as the project's production capacity increases, Jiashixin International's costs are expected to decrease rapidly, which can be supported by data. Jiashixin International has clearly stated in its prospectus that the second-phase commercial production in 2027 will install an ore sorting system, and the unit operating cash cost is expected to decrease significantly to 113 yuan per ton of ore and 49,000 yuan per ton of concentrate. May replicate a ten-fold market trend like Zijin Mining Group in 2021 With top global resources, state-owned enterprise synergies, rapid production capacity release, and cost advantages becoming evident in the future, Jiashixin International has become a "golden opportunity" in the capital market". Even before the public offering, Jiashixin International received 1,200 times oversubscription, freezing 144 billion Hong Kong dollars, and achieved a 177.84% price increase on the first day of listing. Not only that, in less than four months after listing, Jiashixin International's stock price hit a historical high of 44.38 Hong Kong dollars on December 18, three times the issue price, confirming the market's optimism about Jiashixin International's future development. However, from a long-term perspective, Jiashixin International's current stock price is just a reflection of market expectations for short-term tungsten prices and has not fully reflected its long-term intrinsic value as the most elastic investment target in the cycle of rising tungsten mine prices. The production volume, price, and cost data are the core variables that outline Jiashixin International's long-term value. By doing a simple calculation, one can anchor the long-term true value of Jiashixin International. In terms of production volume, Jiashixin International is expected to produce 13,700 tons of tungsten concentrate in 2027; in terms of price, the market generally expects the long-term average price center of tungsten concentrate to be between 450,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton; in terms of cost, the cost per ton of concentrate in 2027 could be as low as 49,000 yuan. This means that Jiashixin International's gross profit in 2027 could reach 5.5 to 6 billion yuan. If tungsten prices exceed expectations, it could bring even more substantial profits to Jiashixin International. It can be foreseen that in the future, with the reassessment of resource value and the synchronization of production capacity, Jiashixin International's stock price may replicate a ten-fold market trend like Zijin Mining Group in 2021. Investors can accumulate on dips and await the accelerated release of dual dividends from the cycle and growth.