Forecast Sees Prediction Markets Scaling to $1 Trillion in Annual Volume by 2030

Prediction markets could reach roughly $1 trillion in annual trading volume by the end of the decade, according to a report from Eilers & Krejcik, a research firm specializing in sports and interactive gaming.

Chris Grove, partner emeritus and strategic advisor at Eilers & Krejcik, warned that legal and regulatory hurdles could impede growth, but said strong consumer demand and a range of brands ready to serve that demand provide a solid basis for expansion.

The firm projects that sports will account for about 44% of long‑term volume. Prediction markets enable trading in contracts tied to cultural, political and sporting outcomes, and rising interest in platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi has prompted established sportsbooks to develop their own prediction offerings.

Comparing prediction‑market activity with sportsbook handle is complicated because prediction markets count both sides of a trade as volume. For example, a 40‑cent purchase matched with a 60‑cent sale registers as $1 in trading volume, whereas a $1 sports wager is recorded as $1 in handle. Using a conversion methodology it developed, Eilers & Krejcik estimates that mature sports prediction markets could generate sportsbook‑style handle equivalent to roughly 60% to 80% of the current licensed, regulated online sports betting market.

Unlike regulated online sports betting, which is legal in 31 U.S. states, prediction markets have launched across all 50 states. Robinhood recently added features enabling users to trade NFL parlays and prop bets, and CEO Vlad Tenev said sportsbooks recognize the disruptive potential of prediction platforms. Fanatics, in collaboration with Crypto.com, introduced Fanatics Markets in early December, and DraftKings and FanDuel are expected to roll out prediction products imminently.

An analysis by Citizens estimates that platforms including Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com, Polymarket and Fanatics are collectively generating about $10 billion in volume. Analysts say prediction markets remain in an early phase of rapid scaling as the asset class evolves from speculative activity toward a more established component of capital markets, with institutional participation likely to follow. Vlad Tenev described the current environment as the start of a “prediction market supercycle.”

As the sector matures, cross‑selling strategies will diverge among operators: FanDuel’s approach to migrating prediction users to its sportsbook or iCasino will differ materially from Robinhood’s efforts to convert prediction traders into equity investors. Observers also note a broader convergence between investing and gambling, with both activities increasingly resembling one another in structure and appeal, a trend Chris Grove highlighted.