Long-term holders continue to cash out as Bitcoin drops below the $86,000 mark again.

The most staunch long-term holders of Bitcoin are still continuously cashing out, and selling pressure is beginning to clearly manifest in the price trend. Since Bitcoin hit a historical high of over $126,000 more than two months ago, its price has fallen by nearly 30%, and it is currently struggling to find support within this range. On Wednesday, Bitcoin once again fell below the $86,000 mark, trading at $85,889.53. One of the key reasons for the pressure on Bitcoin is that the selling behavior of long-term holders has not yet stopped. The latest blockchain data shows that Bitcoin held for years is re-entering the market at a rate not seen in recent years, while at the same time, the market's capacity to absorb these chips is decreasing. According to a report by K33 Research, the number of Bitcoins that have not transferred in at least two years has decreased by approximately 1.6 million, valued at about $140 billion at current prices since the beginning of 2023. This change is seen as a clear signal of long-term holders continuing to realize profits. In 2025 alone, nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin, which has been dormant for over a year, will re-enter circulation. CryptoQuant, a blockchain analysis company, points out that in the past 30 days, the selling volume of long-term holders has reached one of the highest levels in over five years. Chris Newhouse, research director of the decentralized finance research institute Ergonia, stated that the market is currently undergoing a process of "slow bleeding," characterized by continuous selling of spot positions and relatively thin buying liquidity. This downward trend dominated by spot selling pressure is more difficult to reverse than a rapid decline caused by high leverage liquidation. In the past year, such selling was absorbed by the newly introduced Bitcoin ETF and the demand from crypto investment institutions. However, the situation has changed significantly recently: the flow of funds into ETFs has turned negative, derivative trading volume has decreased, and retail participation has significantly weakened. The same level of supply is now falling into a market with fewer buyers and weaker liquidity. Market pressure has been particularly pronounced since October 10th. On that day, U.S. President Trump made unexpected comments on punitive tariffs, causing severe fluctuations in the crypto market, with a single-day liquidation scale of up to $19 billion, marking the largest leverage liquidation in crypto history. Subsequently, traders noticeably withdrew from the derivative market, with no clear signs of a rebound yet. Bitcoin's price briefly rebounded to $90,000 on Wednesday, attributed by traders to the closing of concentrated short positions, but the upward momentum quickly faded. Bitcoin then weakened again, falling back to the lower end of the trading range since the crash in October, dropping by 2.8% to $85,278 at one point. Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33, pointed out that unlike previous cycles, this round of "awakening selling" by long-term holders is not driven by altcoin trading or protocol incentives, but rather by deep liquidity brought about by American ETFs and corporate funds, allowing early investors to realize profits at six-figure prices, significantly reducing Bitcoin's portfolio concentration. He stated that the scale of long-term holder chip circulation observed this year and last year is the second and third largest in Bitcoin history, only surpassed by 2017. Furthermore, according to Coinglass data, the number of open contracts for Bitcoin options and perpetual contracts is still significantly lower than before the crash in October. This indicates that many traders are still on the sidelines, with the derivative market dominating the crypto trading volume. Additionally, "arbitrage trading" formerly widely used by hedge funds through spot and futures price spreads has become unprofitable. However, Lunde believes that the selling pressure from long-term holders is nearing its end. Based on observations from historical on-chain data, he points out that about 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated in the past two years, nearing an important threshold. In his report, Lunde writes that looking ahead, it seems that the selling pressure from long-term holders is nearing saturation, and it is expected that by 2026, the concentration of early investor selling will significantly decrease. As Bitcoin further integrates into institutional investment systems, the amount held for more than two years is expected to rise again, and the market structure may gradually shift towards being dominated by net buyers.