Soochow: The resonance of domestic sales and exports of heavy trucks is continuously improving.

Soochow released a research report stating that November's domestic sales of heavy trucks met the bank's expectations, while wholesale and exports exceeded the bank's expectations. According to the bank's calculations, the industry's total inventory coefficient in November was 1.8, at a reasonable level. In terms of usage, engineering vehicles performed better than logistics vehicles in November on a month-on-month basis. The bank expects the wholesale sales volume of heavy trucks in December 2025 to be around 115,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40%. The bank is optimistic about the sector's performance for the whole year under the stimulus of the National IV policy. Key points from Soochow: November sales: Domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and exports exceeded expectations Industry overview: In November, domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and exports exceeded expectations. 1) Production: In November, there were 114,000 heavy trucks produced, with month-on-month increases of +84.4% and +9.8% respectively; 2) Wholesale: In November, wholesale sales of heavy trucks were 113,000 units, with month-on-month increases of +65.4% and +6.6% respectively; 3) Sales: In November, end sales of heavy trucks were 77,000 units, with month-on-month increases of +34.3% and +9.6% respectively; 4) Exports: In November, export sales of heavy trucks were 33,000 units, with month-on-month increases of +44.0% and +0.7% respectively; 5) Inventory: In November, the overall industry inventory increased by 42,000 units, including 8,000 units from enterprises and 34,000 units from channels. According to the bank's calculations, the industry's total inventory coefficient in November was 1.8, at a reasonable level. Industry structure: In terms of usage, engineering vehicles performed better than logistics vehicles in November. End sales of engineering vehicles in November were 8,500 units, with month-on-month increases of +41.2% and +13.1% respectively; logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with month-on-month increases of +33.5% and +8.9% respectively. The proportion of engineering vehicles/logistics vehicles in November was 11.1%/88.9%, with engineering vehicles' proportion having month-on-month increases of +0.5 and +0.3 points, while logistics vehicles' proportion had month-on-month changes of +0.5 and -0.6 points. As for natural gas heavy trucks, sales in November were 19,000 units, with month-on-month increases of +70.6% and -8.1%, and a penetration rate of 25.3%, with month-on-month changes of +5.38 and -4.87 points. In November, the penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks in traction vehicles was 40.1%, with month-on-month changes of +2.84 and -8.33 points. Market share in November: Foton's domestic market share increased year-on-year, while Jiefang/Foton's export market share increased month-on-month Overall market structure: 1) End sales: In November 2025, the domestic market shares of Jiefang/Dongfeng/Shacman/Foton/FAW were 21.1%/18.0%/16.9%/11.0%/12.4%, respectively, with changes compared to the full year 2024 of -2.6/-2.7/-1.0/+0.8/+2.0 points, and changes compared to October of -0.4/+0.1/-1.0/+0.1/-1.4 points. 2) Exports: In November 2025, the domestic market shares of Jiefang/Dongfeng/Shacman/Foton/FAW were 21.2%/9.3%/45.2%/16.2%/5.7%, with changes compared to the full year 2024 of +2.0/+0.2/+4.3/-5.5/+1.7 points, and changes compared to October of +2.3/+0.0/-0.6/-1.8/+0.2 points. November market structure: Weichai's market share remains the highest Engine market structure: Weichai's market share remains the highest. 1) Overall: In November, Weichai/Cummins/Xichai/Shacman/Unitechnical's market shares were 17.4%/15.6%/14.6%/9.2%/11.1% respectively, with changes compared to the full year 2024 of -10.1/-2.9/-0.5/+2.0/-2.4 points, and changes compared to October of -3.1/-1.5/-0.1/-0.1/-0.3 points; 2) Weichai: In November, Weichai's terminal supporting quantity was 13,000 units, with month-on-month changes of +11.8% and -7.1%. In terms of vehicle manufacturers, in November, Weichai's supporting rates in Shacman/Shacman/Jiefang were 46.5%/43.2%/19.6%, with changes compared to October of -11.6/-3.8/-3.4 points, and changes compared to the full year of 2024 of -23.9/-15.0/-10.9 points. In terms of fuel type, Weichai's market shares of diesel/natural gas engines in November were 11.16%/51.76%, with changes compared to the full year 2024 of -6.14/-7.64 points, and changes compared to October of -0.52/-0.24 points. Risk warning: The recovery of the domestic heavy truck industry may not meet expectations, and natural gas price increases may exceed expectations.