Huaan: Actively seize the opportunity of the reversal of the chemical industry cycle, focus on the two main themes of anti-inward rotation policies and domestic substitution.

Huaan released a research report stating that global macro uncertainty will face great uncertainty in 2026. Amid the reshaping of the global trade landscape and the slowdown of capital expenditure in the chemical industry, the bank recommends focusing on two investment themes with higher certainty: anti-internal competition and domestic substitution. Over the past 25 years, affected by the decline in upstream commodity energy prices and the pressure on supply and demand for chemical products, China's chemical product price index has fallen to a low. Huaan's main points are as follows: Comprehensively rectify internal competitive market, actively seize the opportunity of cycle reversal New domestic production capacity of silicone sees its peak, overseas manufacturers continue to exit, leading companies lead the industry's recovery; PTA production capacity expansion phase is coming to an end, polyester filament production capacity tends to concentrate, and the prosperity of the polyester chain is expected to rebound; The price of caprolactam has dropped to a low point, the industry has initiated a self-driven anti-internal competition; The price index of raw materials has rebounded after hitting bottom, high-frequency safety accidents have caused a sudden increase in the risk of interruption in the global supply chain of key agrochemicals, and sudden supply shrinkage has become a key catalyst for price recovery; The price of spandex has been lower than the cost line, causing industry-wide losses, with a significant slowdown in the release of new production capacity, and an improved supply pattern is expected to drive prices up; The price of vitamins has risen sharply in the past 24 years, and the tight global supply situation continues; The sugar substitute industry benefits from global sugar reduction policies and increasing health awareness, natural sugar substitutes continue to increase penetration rate, and the progress of synthetic biology technology further expands development space; With the accelerated reduction of the second-generation quota of refrigerants and the entry of the third-generation into the quota freeze period, the expansion of the supply side is strict, driving the continuous rise in mainstream product prices; Lithium hexafluorophosphate supply and demand improvement, prices rebound strongly. Domestic substitution leads the growth trend, positioning is timely Biobased materials receive strong support from national policies, companies accelerate technological breakthroughs and industrialization, and the domestication of biobased monomers into composite products is gradually taking shape; Domestic companies in lubricant additives accelerate technological breakthroughs, with significant effects of strategic transformation, multiple high-end products obtain international certification, and the import and export structure reverses, domestic substitution enters the fast lane; The global display panel market is steadily growing, domestic companies accelerating the upgrade and iteration of materials and material research and development, significantly speeding up the process of domestication; Foreign manufacturers of electronic ceramics such as Sanhuan are strong, and the breakthrough of MLCC domestic production accompanies the warming demand for AI/cars, with a positive supply and demand outlook; 3M's exit from the fluorinated liquid market reshapes the market landscape, with strong demand for liquid cooling and semiconductor manufacturing, optimistic about the increase in market share of domestic manufacturers; Explosive growth in AI servers, electronic-grade polyphenylene ether becomes a key material with excellent dielectric performance, domestic manufacturers achieve technological breakthroughs and mass production, enter the leading supply chain, accelerating domestic substitution; Global wafer capacity enters an expansion cycle, electronic chemicals as essential consumables in the process of upgrading and expanding capacity, optimistic about the upward cycle.