Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell simultaneously, and the market is quietly waiting for non-farm payroll and retail sales data.

Pre-market market trends 1. In pre-market trading on December 16th (Tuesday), stock futures for the three major US stock indexes fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures fell by 0.03%, S&P 500 futures fell by 0.13%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.23%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.43%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.45%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.11%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.28%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 1.69%, trading at $55.71 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.63%, trading at $59.57 per barrel. Market News Tonight's revelation! "Abnormal" Nonfarm Payrolls serve as a barometer for the Fed, any deviation from expectations will amplify market shocks. The Nonfarm Payrolls report to be released tonight will be the focus of investors' attention. According to a survey of economists, the median forecast shows that nonfarm employment is expected to increase by 50,000 in November; the unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.5%, continuing its upward trend in recent months to the highest level since 2021. This report not only allows people to see the true state of the long-awaited US labor market but also sets the tone for next year's interest rate path. However, due to the impact of the government shutdown, the uncertainty and exceptional factors in the data are more significant than usual. In addition, the US Department of Commerce will also release retail sales data for October. Excluding auto and gasoline sales, economists expect an acceleration in consumer spending growth, indicating that consumer demand remained robust at the beginning of the fourth quarter; while overall retail sales, excluding inflation adjustments, are expected to show only a "tepid" 0.1% increase. US stocks start the week with a "headwind": Tech stock sell-off spreads, key data swirls the market into turmoil once again. At the beginning of this week, tech stocks continued their slump from last week, as concerns about artificial intelligence reemerged. Disappointing earnings reports from Oracle Corporation and Broadcom Inc. heightened these concerns, offsetting the optimism brought by the Fed's rate cut. Rick Gardner, Chief Investment Officer at RGA Investments, believes that whether investors will continue to accept the high valuations of large tech stocks and artificial intelligence stocks is a "big question for 2026". He pointed out that while the technology has shown "great potential," the valuations of many stocks "trade as if all artificial intelligence productivity has already been realized." Meanwhile, traders are preparing for a slew of economic data to be released. For traders, this week's economic data will help fill the data gap caused by the government shutdown. Economic resilience, rate cuts, AI on fire! UBS Group AG continues to be bullish on US stocks: S&P 500 set to climb to 7700 points next year. UBS Group AG recently stated in a report that due to the resilience of the economy, declining interest rates, and continued hot investment in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), the outlook for the US stock market remains optimistic. UBS Group AG predicts that the S&P 500 Index will reach 7300 points by June 2026 and further climb to 7700 points by December 2026. At the same time, the bank expects earnings per share of S&P 500 index component companies to reach $277 in 2025, an increase of 11% from the previous year; it is expected to further increase to $305 in 2026, a 10% increase. UBS Group AG stated that its optimistic outlook is based on the resonance of profit growth, loose monetary policy, and continued realization of AI. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Ups its copper price forecast for next year, tariff risks remain high. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has raised its forecast for copper prices in 2026, citing high risks of the US imposing copper import tariffs, which will continue to support copper prices. In its report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. raised its average price forecast for copper in 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton, and anticipates that the long-feared copper import tariff policy may be implemented in 2027. Additionally, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. estimates that there is a 55% possibility of the Trump administration announcing a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026, a policy expected to take effect in 2027 and could increase the tariff to 30% by 2028. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that expectations of future tariffs are likely to drive US copper prices above the London Metal Exchange benchmark price, encouraging more hoarding and tightening supply in non-US markets. Fitch warns: Bank of America Corp's lending to non-bank institutions jumps 26%, systemic risks lurk in increased exposure. Fitch Ratings data show that Bank of America Corp is increasing its lending to private credit companies, private equity firms, and hedge funds, with loans to these non-bank Financial Institutions, Inc. growing by 26% as of November. Fitch analysts, citing Federal Reserve data in a report released on Monday, pointed out that as of November 26th, US domestic banks added approximately $363 billion in loans to non-bank institutions, while other types of loans increased by $291 billion. Fitch stated that regulatory capital requirements and strong borrower demand are the main reasons driving banks to increase lending to non-bank institutions. However, this increase in exposure also brings potential risks to banks, making their ties with the private credit and private equity industries increasingly close. Stock-specific News NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) acquires SchedMD to strengthen AI ecosystem with open-source strategy. SchedMD's core business is providing large-scale computing task scheduling software, which often requires massive resources from data center servers. The company's open-source technology Slurm allows developers and enterprises to use its basic software for free, with the company's main revenue coming from engineering implementation and maintenance support services. The financial terms of this transaction have not been disclosed, but NVIDIA Corporation has promised to continue distributing SchedMD's software products in an open-source format. NVIDIA Corporation stated, "The Slurm system that supports the latest NVIDIA Corporation hardware has become a key infrastructure for generative AI and is widely used by model developers and AI builders for managing model training and inference needs." The chip giant is enhancing its AI ecosystem layout through increased investment in open-source technology to cope with the increasingly fierce industry competition. Shifting resources for AI strategic adjustments? Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Luxembourg headquarters record-breaking layoffs. Amazon.com, Inc.'s decision earlier this year to lay off 14,000 employees globally is now causing shockwaves at its European headquarters in Luxembourg. In the coming weeks, Amazon.com, Inc. is expected to lay off 370 people locally, accounting for 8.5% of its 4,370 employees. This layoff is the largest in this small country in at least twenty years, becoming a speed bump in the mutually beneficial relationship between Amazon.com, Inc. and Luxembourg. In October of this year, Amazon.com, Inc. stated that its global layoffs aim to "reduce bureaucracy, optimize organizational structure, and adjust resource allocation to ensure investment focuses on the most important strategic areas," including artificial intelligence. The company revealed that there will be more layoff plans in 2026 and anticipates limiting hiring in key growth areas next year. Historical turning point! Ford (F.US) goes from All-in to retreat: Sets aside $19.5 billion for abandoning electric vehicles, strategy shifts towards hybrids and energy storage. Ford Motor Company announced that it will set aside $19.5 billion in expenses for electric vehicles, the most glaring sign to date that the automotive industry is abandoning electric vehicle technology, which automotive manufacturers wholeheartedly embraced at the beginning of this century. Most of this amount is used to pay for the costs related to canceling the development of electric vehicle models that took years. Approximately $8.5 billion is related to costs for canceling multiple future electric vehicle projects, including a large pickup truck originally planned for production in Tennessee. Ford is shifting its focus to expanding the market for traditional fuel vehicles and hybrid vehicles to better meet the preferences of American car buyers. As of the time of writing, Ford Motor Company was up over 2% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Volvo's "cut-off" becomes a fatal blow! Luminar (LAZR.US), a lidar giant, goes bankrupt with debts up to $10 billion. Luminar, which produces laser sensors for cars, filed for bankruptcy protection shortly after terminating its contract with Swedish car manufacturer Volvo Cars. The company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday in the Southern District of Texas court. In its bankruptcy filing, assets listed range from $100 million to $500 million, while liabilities range from $500 million to $1 billion. Important Economic Data and Upcoming Events 21:30 Beijing time: US Nonfarm Payrolls for October-November 21:30 Beijing time: US Retail Sales for October 22:45 Beijing time: US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for December