Goldman Sachs: Raises Next Year's Copper Price Expectations, Tariff Risks Still High

Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the price of copper in 2026, citing the high risk of the United States imposing copper import tariffs, which will continue to support the copper price. In the report, Goldman Sachs raised its average price forecast for copper in 2026 from $10,650 per ton to $11,400, and predicted that the copper import tariff policy, which the market has always been concerned about, may be implemented in 2027. In addition, Goldman Sachs estimated that there is a 55% chance that the Trump administration will announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026, with the policy expected to take effect in 2027 and possibly increase to 30% in 2028. Goldman Sachs stated that expectations for future tariffs are likely to make the US copper price higher than the London Metal Exchange benchmark, encouraging more hoarding and tightening supply in non-US markets currently a key driver of global pricing dynamics. Goldman Sachs also added that structural factors, including hoarding and uncertainty in trade policies, continue to support prices. Despite the upward revision of its copper price forecast for 2026, Goldman Sachs has maintained its forecast for 2027 at $10,750 per ton. Goldman Sachs expects that once tariffs take effect and the global market rebalances, the copper price on the London Metal Exchange will decline. The bank also raised its forecast for global copper surplus in 2026 from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, reflecting a stronger trend of supply growth in the future.