Revealed tonight! "Abnormal" non-farm payrolls become the wind vane of the Federal Reserve, any deviation from expectations will amplify market shocks.

Amid a dense release of economic data throughout the week, the employment report released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday will be the focus of investors' attention. According to a survey of economists, the median forecast shows that non-farm employment is expected to increase by 50,000 in November; the unemployment rate may reach 4.5%, continuing its upward trend for several months, reaching the highest level since 2021. This report not only allows people to examine the long-awaited true situation of the American labor market but also sets the tone for next year's interest rate path. However, unfortunately, this is not a "routine" employment report - the uncertainty and abnormal factors of the data are more significant than usual due to the government shutdown. You need to know the following points: What are the abnormal factors in this data? This report not only includes the number of wage jobs in November but also includes key indicators derived from the monthly household survey, such as the unemployment rate. During the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) extended the data collection period of the month to ensure sufficient time to collect information. However, BLS cannot retroactively record October data of the same kind, leading to missing relevant statistical data. The agency cancelled the release of the October employment report last month and clearly stated that it would also issue the October job number when announcing the November data. Due to most companies storing records and reporting payroll electronically, BLS has been able to obtain this data, providing crucial support for the report. Job numbers themselves Employment data has been particularly volatile in recent months, with significant fluctuations between positive and negative, and Tuesday's report is unlikely to break this "tradition". After the unexpected increase in employment in September, some economists predicted that the number of jobs in October would turn negative. The core reason for this expectation is that tens of thousands of federal employees participating in the "delayed retirement plan" are no longer included in the salary statistics from September 30, leading the official data unable to reflect the continued existence of these positions. The US Office of Personnel Management stated that about 144,000 people accepted the program. Goldman Sachs economists predict that this will drag down the October job numbers by 70,000 and a further 10,000 in November. Despite the uncertainty, most economists still predict that the number of jobs in November will continue to show positive growth, with a range from -20,000 to +127,000. Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief Economist of Oxford Economics, pointed out that job growth in the month will be mainly driven by the healthcare and private education service sectors. Unemployment rate BLS will not release the October unemployment rate data, but economists generally predict that the November unemployment rate will be higher than September's 4.4%. The continued low recruitment activity and the dual impact of the rebound in labor participation rates have led to a monthly increase in the unemployment rate in the three months ending in September; at the same time, recent layoff announcements have also significantly increased, with the layoff index for October rising to the highest level since early 2023. Bloomberg Economics specifically pointed out: "The absence of October unemployment rate data and the late collection of November data beyond the normal cycle may lead to the 'technical' issues mentioned by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, such as seasonal adjustment distortions." Some professional forecasters further analyze that the reduction in the size of federal government employees may exert upward pressure on the November unemployment rate, which may rise to 4.6%. What else? In addition to the employment report released on Tuesday evening Beijing time, the US Department of Commerce will also simultaneously release data on retail sales in October. After excluding auto and gasoline sales, economists expect consumer spending growth to accelerate, indicating steady consumer demand at the beginning of the fourth quarter; while overall retail sales without adjusting for inflation are expected to show a tepid 0.1% growth. Later this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, which also faced exceptional conditions - the insufficient data collection due to the government shutdown led to the direct invalidation of the October CPI report. Due to the lack of comparable October baseline data, BLS cannot release the month-on-month change data of the CPI and its core index excluding food and energy; investors can only focus on the year-on-year data to capture potential changes in inflation trends.