Cui Dongshu: Overall strong trend in the national automobile market in 2025, the popularity of new energy commercial vehicles is on the rise.

Cui Dongshu stated in his article that under the promotion fee policy of the country, the automotive market has maintained strong growth, and the overall trend of the national automotive market in 2025 is relatively strong, with the truck market and passenger car market showing significant signs of recovery. In 2025, the market is driven by policy factors, with passenger cars growing at a rate of 11%, which is relatively good. Commercial vehicles are being driven by electrification, and the trend of new energy commercial vehicles is significantly stronger compared to last year, including a strong growth in the passenger car market, including microvans. In November, the trend of new energy vehicles is strong, and the export market for automobiles continues to be strong. In 2025, the commercial vehicle market shows a structural growth feature driven by equipment renewal subsidies, with high subsidies accelerating the electrification of logistics transportation and high prosperity in the commercial vehicle market. 1. Different trends in passenger and commercial vehicles in 2025 In recent years, there has been a significant differentiation in the trends of passenger and commercial vehicles, with commercial vehicles weakening and passenger car consumption improving. In 2025, the market is driven by policy factors, with passenger cars growing at a rate of 11%, which is relatively good, while commercial vehicles are being driven by electrification, and the trend of new energy commercial vehicles is significantly stronger compared to last year, including a strong growth in the passenger car market including microvans. The policy of replacing old cars with new ones has had a significant impact on passenger cars, especially with positive effects during the policy period. In recent times, regions that had temporarily suspended the policy have begun to recover, and the industry's efforts to streamline and control have made positive progress, leading to a overall slowdown in the car market trend. 2. Cooling of the automotive market in 2025 From January to November 2025, the total cumulative sales of automobiles reached 30.94 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%; the total sales of automobiles in November reached 3.42 million units, an increase of 3% year-on-year. This year, the subsidy policy has driven high retail growth in the first half of the year, while wholesale growth has been slower. Retail growth weakened from July to November, but manufacturers' sales remained strong. 3. Sharp differentiation in the performance of major automotive groups Compared to the data from 2021, some car companies had strong performance in 2022, indicating a significant differentiation in industry growth rates. The outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022 put pressure on traditional car companies, especially with the impact of new energy combined with the epidemic. State-owned major groups showed differing performance, with GAC and Chery performing well, including strong performance in both the commercial and passenger car sectors at Chery. Companies such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC in the northern region all faced pressure. The trend of the car market began to differentiate in early 2023 due to the promotion of new energy vehicles. The top three state-owned enterprises showed a significant differentiation, with some falling behind. New energy companies such as BYD and Tesla performed well; Chery and Tesla had relatively strong performance this year. Second-tier car companies showed mixed performance because of the transition from old to new energy sources and the continued pressure from losses in new energy vehicles, with severe differentiation and stagnation among small and medium-sized independent brands. By 2024, the lineup of automotive groups had completely changed, with BYD lowering prices to increase sales volume due to the strong demand for passenger cars and overseas contributions, resulting in a good performance from Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng, while SAIC was still experiencing a rapid decline. The growth of BYD and Tesla in new energy vehicles differed. There was a huge change in the structure of the automotive market, with a significant differentiation in industry growth. Private enterprises began to replace state-owned enterprises as the industry leaders in 2025, with Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining a higher growth rate, a trend which is currently sustainable. SAIC and Dongfeng had strong performances in November, with an improvement in growth rates. The landscape of automotive manufacturers in 2025 was relatively stable, with a significant increase in the position of independent brands. Overall, manufacturer sales in November showed a strong growth compared to October, with some manufacturers like SAIC Wuling and SAIC Passenger Cars showing a stable trend, while Geely, Dongfeng, and SAIC Passenger Cars showed strong year-on-year growth. Some manufacturers like FAW-Volkswagen experienced significant year-on-year adjustments in November. 4. Trends in sales and production of narrow passenger car enterprises From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales volume of narrow passenger cars totaled 26.75 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 11%; in November, the cumulative sales volume of narrow passenger cars reached 3 million units, an increase of 2% year-on-year. In recent years, there has been continuous growth in the innovation of new energy vehicle technologies and an increasing competitiveness in new products, whereas the launch of new fuel vehicles has been weak. After the Spring Festival in 2025, there was a rapid growth in new energy vehicles, with the car market maintaining a strong development with a growth rate of 14% from May to September, although the growth rate in November remained strong. In 2025, Chinese independent car manufacturers led the way in passenger cars. In November, mainstream car manufacturers overall showed weak performance, with independent brands performing strongly, while joint venture car manufacturers showed weak trends. BYD led the pack, Geely ranked second, and Chery maintained third in November, with the top three companies' scales gradually approaching each other. Joint ventures like FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC-VW showed relatively stable performance. The landscape of major passenger car manufacturers quickly differentiated in 2025, with companies focusing on new energy vehicles showing stronger performance and significant differentiation among Chinese independent brands. Since 2023, sales of narrow passenger cars have maintained a 5% year-on-year growth; from January to November 2025, total sales reached 21.47 million units, growing by 6% year-on-year, but showing a slowdown trend since September. In November 2025, narrow passenger car sales totaled 2.23 million units, representing an 8% decrease year-on-year. 5. Trends in sales and production of new energy passenger car enterprises In November 2025, the total sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 1.71 million units, a 19% increase year-on-year; the trend of new energy passenger cars in 2024 showed a good growth with sales of 12.24 million units, a 38% increase, and from January to November 2025, the total wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 13.77 million units, a 28% increase year-on-year. In the first half of 2025, the scrappage renewal subsidies, price reductions, new models, and other factors brought good growth, with exports boosting growth in the second half of the year. In 2025, the competition landscape of new energy vehicle manufacturers was relatively stable, with leading manufacturers showing faster growth, and second-tier manufacturers gradually accelerating. In November, companies like Geely, Leapmotor, Chery, Changan, Dongfeng, and Xiaomi showed strong trends, while companies like Ideal had slower growth. There was a significant differentiation in the car market nationwide, with large differences in growth rates between provinces and regions, as well as among manufacturers. 6. Trends in sales and production of traditional fuel-powered passenger car enterprises In 2023, sales of traditional fuel-powered narrow passenger cars reached 16.66 million units, remaining relatively stable compared to the previous year; in 2024, sales dropped to 14.95 million units, a 10% year-on-year decrease, and from January to November 2025, sales reached 12.98 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease, with a significant 14% drop in November, creating enormous pressure for the year-end slump. Conventional passenger cars experienced continuous growth from June to September, but the decline accelerated after October. The replacement of old cars with new ones had a positive effect on fuel-powered cars, but the continued impact of new energy vehicles' pricing will likely persist, and the hope is that traditional cars will stabilize and resume growth. The dominance of joint venture companies in conventional fuel-powered passenger cars is gradually changing to favor independent brands, with Chery, Geely, Great Wall, and the top three joint ventures showing relatively strong market performances. FAW-Volkswagen is the absolute leader among joint ventures, while the advantages of independent brands over joint ventures in fuel-powered cars are not significant, and the technical reserves of joint ventures in fuel-powered cars remains strong. 7. Trends in sales and production of commercial vehicle enterprises In 2023, the total cumulative sales of commercial vehicles reached 750,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3% for the full year; in 2024, total sales of commercial vehicles reached 800,000 units, with a full-year growth rate of 6%; from January to November 2025, total cumulative sales of commercial vehicles reached 830,000 units, representing a 19% year-on-year increase; in November, total commercial vehicle sales reached 80,000 units, an increase of 2% year-on-year, with a noticeable effect from the increased sales of new energy logistics vehicles. In 2025, the trend of the commercial vehicle market was relatively strong, with strong sales growth among top manufacturers from January to September, including strong performance in commercial vehicles from Wuling, Chang'an, and Dato. Due to good policy subsidies, the growth of new energy commercial vehicles recovered. 8. Trends in sales and production of truck enterprises In 2023, the total cumulative sales of trucks reached 3.54 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19% for the full year; in 2024, total sales of trucks reached 3.35 million units, with a full-year decrease of 3%; from January to November 2025, total cumulative sales of trucks reached 3.35 million units, representing a 10% year-on-year increase; in November, total truck sales reached 340,000 units, an increase of 26% year-on-year. In 2025, the performance of major truck manufacturers was significantly differentiated, with top manufacturers showing strong performance, such as FAW, SAIC, and Chongqing Changan Automobile seeing a significant year-on-year increase in November, while Wuling Motors and Jiangling's light truck manufacturing showed good performance in November. There was a sharp increase in heavy trucks in 2025, with pure electric heavy trucks showing strong performance, and companies like FAW, Shaanxi Auto, and FAW Jiefang experiencing strong growth, leading to a relatively stable industry structure.