"Space travel" CEO expressed support, predicting a sharp increase in the market's probability of Powell being appointed as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.

After JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon publicly declared that "Warsh will become a 'great chairman'," the former Federal Reserve Board governor swiftly emerged as a strong contender to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve, with his chances of winning in the market soaring significantly. The latest data as of Saturday showed that on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, the probability of Warsh being nominated had jumped by 17 and 24 percentage points respectively. This significant shift indicates a major change in market expectations for the future leadership of the Federal Reserve. The data on Kalshi's prediction market is more straightforward, showing Warsh's probability of winning and another popular candidate, Hassett, fluctuating in opposite directions. Warsh's chances of winning are skyrocketing, almost catching up to Hassett; while the latter is declining rapidly, although its 50% chance of winning still leads the field. This indicates that while Warsh's odds have significantly improved, Hassett's current lead is still relatively stable. The direct catalyst for this change came from two levels. First, US President Trump stated on Friday that he was leaning towards choosing Ben Bernanke's successor from "two Kevins" - Kevin Warsh and White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. Secondly, on Thursday, one of the most powerful bankers on Wall Street, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, explicitly stated at a private asset management CEO conference in New York that he supported Warsh taking over the Fed. Trump narrows down to "two Kevins" In an interview with the media on Friday, Trump made it clear that he had narrowed down his search for the next Fed Chairman to two people. He revealed that after a 45-minute meeting with Warsh at the White House on Wednesday, Warsh had become his top consideration along with Hassett. Trump's criteria for choosing a candidate are also clear. "He believes you should lower rates, and so do I, and so does everybody else I talk to," Trump said. He has been critical of the Fed under Powell for not wanting to cut rates significantly amid concerns about inflation control. After the Fed announced a 25-point rate cut for the third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, Trump said the rate cut should be at least twice as big. In addition, Trump also believes that the next Fed Chairman should consult with him on rate policy. He told the media, "I don't think he should just follow exactly what I say, but... I have a very good voice. I think it should be listened to." He said that he believes rates should be lowered to "1% within a year, possibly even lower." "Universe Walk-in" CEO supports Another important weight added to Warsh comes from indirect support from JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon. According to Wall Street News, Dimon told Wall Street executives at a private meeting on Thursday that he agrees with Warsh's views on the Federal Reserve. It is worth noting that reports also suggest that Dimon simultaneously expressed the belief that if Hassett were to become Fed Chairman, he would be more likely to cut rates according to Trump's wishes. This comment adds more complexity to the market's interpretation. Earlier this year, Dimon had publicly emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence and warned that presidential interference in central bank decisions "often has adverse consequences." Different policy prospects for "two Kevins" For the market, the focus is on the policy differences that different candidates may bring. Some bond investors have expressed concerns that a Fed led by Hassett may prioritize economic growth over price stability in pursuing more aggressive rate cuts. This policy orientation could disrupt the bond market and pose challenges to bond investment portfolios. Therefore, as the final selection of candidates approaches, the market will increasingly scrutinize candidates' past statements and policy positions, and any movement could trigger asset price volatility. Kevin Hassett: As a former White House insider, he is seen as a candidate more in line with Trump's expectations. He has publicly supported aggressive rate cuts, and in the eyes of some on Wall Street, he carries a stronger "executor" label. Kevin Warsh: As a former Federal Reserve Board governor, he has gained recognition from Dimon and other Wall Street leaders. However, his frequent criticism of the Fed after leaving office has made him unpopular within the central bank, and some views still consider his stance before the 2008 financial crisis as "overly hawkish." With Trump's continued public pressure for the Fed to adopt a more aggressive rate cut policy, the competition for the next Fed Chairman is becoming increasingly fierce. Currently, the selection process led by US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is still ongoing, and it is expected that Trump will interview more candidates next week. Whether to choose a "independentist" whom Wall Street trusts or a "loyalist" favored by the White House, the answer will be revealed in the coming weeks. This article is reprinted from the "Wall Street News" APP, author: Long Yue, GMTEight Editor: Song Zhiying.