Overnight US stocks | Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes fell this week, while spot gold rose by 2.49%

On Friday, the three major indexes declined, with the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 falling from record highs. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said there is room for further rate cuts. President Trump expressed a preference for Powell or Hassett to serve as Federal Reserve Chairman, and the next Fed Chairman should communicate with him on rate issues. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell this week, with the former down 0.63% and the latter down 1.62%. The Dow achieved a weekly gain, rising 1.05% this week. [US Stocks] At the close, the Dow fell 245.96 points, down 0.51% at 48458.05 points; the Nasdaq fell 398.69 points, down 1.69% at 23195.17 points; the S&P 500 fell 73.59 points, down 1.07% at 6827.41 points. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 2.7%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) fell 3.27%, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) fell 11.43%, and Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose 0.09%. [Euro Stocks] The Germany DAX30 Index fell 100.81 points, down 0.42% at 24177.40 points; the UK FTSE 100 Index fell 62.26 points, down 0.64% at 9640.90 points; the France CAC40 Index fell 17.14 points, down 0.21% at 8068.62 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 36.01 points, down 0.63% at 5717.95 points; the Spain IBEX35 Index fell 55.48 points, down 0.33% at 16827.52 points; the Italy FTSE MIB Index fell 192.01 points, down 0.44% at 43510.00 points. [Asia-Pacific Stock Markets] The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.9%, the South Korea KOSPI Index fell 0.59%, the India BSE SENSEX rose 0.51%, and the Indonesia Composite Index fell 0.92%. [Forex] The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose less than 0.1% on Friday in thin trading, but has still fallen for the week; down 0.9% so far in December, which is typically a weaker month for the dollar. The one-month risk reversal of the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell into a bearish range for the first time this week since early October. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin plunged again, falling over 2% at the time of writing, to $90352.04; Ethereum fell over 4%, falling below $3100. [Precious Metals] Spot gold rose 0.47%, closing above $4300, with a total increase of 2.49% this week. COMEX gold futures rose 0.48%, at $4333.60 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.14%, reaching as high as $4387.80 on Friday. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed next year and ongoing political uncertainty with GEO Group Inc have boosted safe-haven demand and supported the rise in gold prices. An analyst at Deutsche Bank said, "Although signs suggest that the next Fed meeting in January may pause rate cuts, the door to further rate cuts remains open. We expect the size of the rate cut to exceed current market expectations, especially after the new Fed Chairman takes office in May next year." [Crude Oil] WTI crude oil futures for January delivery fell 0.28% on the New York market, closing at $57.44; Brent crude for February delivery fell 0.26%, closing at $61.12 per barrel. [Macro News] Fed's Harker: Tends to a tighter stance, current policy is near neutral. Cleveland Fed President Harker said she prefers a slightly tighter rate level to continue to put pressure on still-high inflation. "Our policy is currently roughly at a neutral level," Harker said on Friday. "I tend to take a slightly tighter stance to help continue to exert pressure on inflation." Harker has no voting rights this year but will be eligible to vote in 2026. When asked if she supported this week's rate cut decision, she did not directly answer, only calling it a "complex decision" as policymakers face dual-mission two-way pressures. Harker also said she expects key inflation and employment data to be released in the coming weeks to help policymakers more clearly assess the economic outlook. She also noted that the Fed lacks appropriate tools to address structural changes in the economy. US 30-year Treasury yield rises to highest since September. Long-term U.S. bond prices fell, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since early September, as the impact of the Fed's rate cuts and policy stance began to permeate the market this week. The 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 basis points to 4.86%, reaching a new high since September 5, rising about 5 basis points this week. The 2-year Treasury yield was flat on Friday, with a slight decline for the week. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Fed next year supported the decline in short-term bond yields, while long-term bond yields reflected persistent high inflation. Chicago Fed President Gulspie and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt said on Friday that inflation concerns were the main reason they opposed rate cuts and supported the status quo. Strategist Edward Harrison said, "Gulspie said he opposed rate cuts because of inflation concerns. Given that traders still expect two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of 2026, his remarks suggest that U.S. Treasuries face downside risks." Fed's Gulspie: Policy shouldn't consider government borrowing costs. Fed's Gulspie said on Friday that the central bank should not consider government borrowing costs when setting interest rate policy and said this is a key reason for the independence of the Federal Reserve. "What pains me is that people would dare to say... why should a group of non-government, non-administrative people come and decide interest rates? They should not maintain independence," Gulspie said at the Chicago Fed's economic symposium. "There are even suggestions that the Fed should cut interest rates to lower the government's borrowing costs. This is actually the monetization of debt. This is the fundamental reason we want the Fed to remain independent." U.S. President Trump has said the Fed should cut rates to lower government borrowing costs. Fed's Paulson: More focused on employment risks, monetary policy has a restrictive effect. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said on Friday that she is currently most concerned about the labor market, and the current monetary policy stance should help bring inflation back to its 2% target. She said, "My current concern about the soft labor market is still slightly greater than my concern about the risk of rising inflation." This is partly because "I believe that next year, as the impact of tariffs gradually fades, there is a good chance that inflation will gradually decline." Although Paulson did not provide a clear forward guidance in her speech, she emphasized that she still believes that monetary policy is in a somewhat restrictive state. This rate level, along with the cumulative effects of past tightening policies, should help inflation return to the 2% target. Paulson described the current labor market as "bending, but not breaking yet" and pointed out that "through three successive rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, we have provided some insurance against further deterioration in the labor market." Paulson noted that the situation will be clearer in the early next year (when she will become an FOMC voter), at which point more information will be available. Nasdaq gains greater discretion, can reject high-risk IPOs. The Nasdaq Stock Exchange has been given greater discretion to reject IPO applications with manipulation risks, according to reports. This new rule was immediately approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Friday. The new rule authorizes Nasdaq to reject listings if the company's jurisdiction does not cooperate with U.S. regulatory agency reviews; underwriters, brokers, lawyers, or audit firms have been involved in problematic transactions; there are doubts about the integrity of management or major shareholders. This move is aimed at addressing the problem of a large number of small IPOs that have experienced price crashes in recent years. In the past year, half of Nasdaq's IPO fundraising amounted to less than $15 million, with the majority of stock prices falling by over 35% within a year. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Bullish on the U.S. stock market performance in 2026, with the six major tech companies contributing nearly half of the growth. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects the market to continue to strengthen in 2026, setting a target of 7,600 points for the S&P 500 index. Ben Snider, Chief U.S. Stock Strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., said that AI-driven productivity will boost earnings, and he expects the S&P 500 index's earnings per share (EPS) to grow by 12% to $305, with six major tech companies contributing nearly half of the growth. While large tech companies remain the major drivers, Snider also expects earnings from other components of the index to improve. He noted that the risks ahead include the Fed slowing its pace of easing and profit margins facing pressure, but he remains positive overall. Misjudging the stock market's rise, hedge fund manager bets heavily on infrastructure stocks and earns 79% this year. New York hedge fund manager Bill Harnisch warned at the beginning of the year that market valuations were too high and that Trump's tariff agenda could disrupt global trade. While his peers diversified their funds in 2025 to bet on large tech stocks and macro trading, he concentrated over 90% of his Peconic Partners fund's long positions on three infrastructure construction stocks Quanta Services, Dycom Industries, and MasTec, which lay power lines and fiber optic networks for the AI, high-speed internet, and Clean Energy Fuels Corp. trends. This strategy helped his $3.1 billion fund earn a return rate of 79% this year, more than four times that of the S&P 500 index. Looking ahead to 2026, Harnisch maintains a cautious stance, predicting that the S&P 500 will remain "flat or even decline," going against the mainstream view on Wall Street. [Stock News] Oracle Corporation responds: Will not delay data center construction related to OpenAI. Media reported on Friday that due to labor and material shortages, Oracle Corporation (ORCLE.US) would delay the construction of the data center related to OpenAI, from 2027 to 2028, but Oracle Corporation later denied this report. Oracle Corporation spokesperson Michael Egbert said in an email statement, "After the agreement was signed, we worked closely with OpenAI to determine the site selection and delivery schedule and reached a consensus. There have been no delays in the construction of any sites required to fulfill our contractual commitments, and all milestones are on track." He added, "We remain fully aligned with OpenAI and are confident in our ability to fulfill our contractual commitments and future expansion plans." After the response was released, Oracle Corporation (ORCL.N) stock price partially recovered from losses. [Big Bank Ratings] UBS Group AG (UEX.US): Initiates coverage on Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of $90.