Silver’s Frenzied Rally Persists, New York Silver Gains As Much As 6.0% Intraday; Is $100 Next?

Silver’s dramatic advance continued unabated. On December 11, the metal—valued both as an industrial input and a safe‑haven asset—extended a year‑to‑date price surge that has effectively doubled its value. Spot silver reached a record USD 64.28 per ounce, while New York silver futures posted an intraday gain of up to 6.0%, trading at USD 64.69 per ounce.

The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2025 projects a fifth consecutive year of global supply deficits, estimating a shortfall of roughly 117 million ounces (about 3,660 tonnes) in 2025, one of the largest gaps in recent memory. Mine production has remained essentially flat at approximately 813 million ounces annually, even as industrial demand has climbed to record levels. Strong uptake in renewable energy, electronics and other green technologies, combined with investor concerns about inflation and currency volatility, has positioned silver among the top performing precious metals in 2025.

Several analysts cited by financial media expect silver to test the USD 100 threshold next year, albeit with the potential for significant volatility en route. Paul Williams of Solomon Global forecast in October, when silver approached USD 50, that the metal could exceed USD 100 by the end of 2026. Philippe Gijsels, Chief Strategist at BNP Paribas, has similarly suggested that silver may enter triple‑digit territory in 2026. Nonetheless, risks such as a slowdown in industrial demand, shifts in interest rates and adjustments on the supply side could temper the rally.

Supply Bottleneck: Mining Output Stagnant For Five Years The market is experiencing an extended period of structural shortage. The Silver Institute’s 2025 survey indicates that global mine output is expected to remain near 813 million ounces in 2025, with recycling providing only partial relief. Because silver is frequently produced as a by‑product of other metal mining, price appreciation does not automatically translate into proportionate increases in primary supply, reinforcing structural constraints on the supply side.

Analysts point to the combination of persistent deficits and rising demand from renewable and industrial sectors as a key factor behind silver’s outperformance relative to gold. Ultima Markets senior analyst Elon Gu noted that since April, the supply‑demand imbalance and a loose interest‑rate backdrop have allowed silver to outpace gold, with the gold‑silver ratio approaching lows last seen in 2021.

Demand Surge: Industrial And Investment Drivers Demand for silver has diversified and strengthened. Industrial consumption—particularly in electronics, photovoltaic applications and other green technologies—has reached record levels, according to the 2025 survey. Concurrently, investment demand has risen sharply as market participants reallocate into silver for its dual role as an industrial commodity and a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and currency swings.

Silver’s value has nearly doubled since early 2025, delivering returns that outstripped many other precious metals. During late November and early December, spot silver traded in the USD 50 range with intraday highs at or above USD 58.84 per ounce, and the December 9 breach of the USD 60 mark represented a notable milestone in the metal’s 2025 advance.

Analyst Outlook: The Prospect Of USD 100 In 2026 Industry forecasts generally anticipate that the supply deficit will persist into 2026. While some analysts expect the gap to narrow, stagnant mine production and record industrial demand are likely to sustain upward pressure on prices. Bank of America raised its 12‑month silver target to USD 65 per ounce, citing narrowing real yields and stronger ETF inflows. BNP Paribas offered a more bullish scenario, projecting that silver could reach USD 100 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investors seek safe‑haven assets amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks.

Market indicators show that short positions have been under pressure and that the market exhibits overbought technical conditions, though not to the extremes seen in October. Speculative positioning was suboptimal prior to the latest surge, and volatility has risen since early November, albeit below the panic levels observed during the October squeeze. A softer U.S. dollar has provided additional support, and commodity trading advisors have participated in the rally, though with less intensity than in October.

Potential Risks: Tests To The Rally The upside trajectory is not without vulnerabilities. Industrial demand, particularly in the solar sector, could moderate if manufacturers substitute less costly materials or reduce silver intensity in response to higher prices. Investment demand is also sensitive to macroeconomic shifts; rising interest rates or easing inflation would likely reduce the appeal of non‑yielding metals such as silver. Sentiment and flows from speculative investors remain significant drivers of near‑term price dynamics.

Finally, while structural supply deficits are evident, supply‑side responses—such as mine expansions, increased recycling or substitution—could eventually alleviate tightness. Given the lead times required for mining and processing, however, such adjustments typically lag price movements and therefore may not provide immediate relief.